The rise of Tier 2 towns

Have been on a pan-India tour for the past few weeks, visiting our stores, interacting with my colleagues, our valued franchise partners, mall managers, heads & ecosystem partners and of course, our esteemed customers. I must admit that my trips have been skewed to Tier 2 towns and by design. For, this is where India lives and spends. Over the past 24 months or so, we have witnessed a massive reverse migration from bigger cities to smaller towns, ever since the pandemic led lockdown began. Initially thought to be a short-term trend, things seem to have gained traction all across India for the past 1 year. So much so, that many employees across Industries and companies are now – literally demanding – that they be allowed to WFH with a hybrid model of physical presence at the office precincts.

One’s loss is another’s gain, they say. As a Retailer, I cannot complain!

The photo above was taken early June at Uttar Pradesh capital Lucknow’s famed Phoenix Pallasio Mall on a weekday. The 1 million sq.ft. Mall has a dozen or so international luxury brands, 3 dozen+ international premium brands, over 50+ domestic brands and scores of regional brands in fashion and food. This mall is located pretty much in the outskirts of the town and has a neighbour closely, the 6-lakh sq.ft. Lulu mall which opens doors in Q2 FY22. Last week I was at Guwahati, Assam and our Franchise Partners says the state is about to get 8 new malls. At a Starbucks cafe in Bhubaneswar’s Esplanade Mall, I saw for the first time more tables filled with family crowds than anywhere in India! The foodcourts across Malls are overflowing as though there is a shortage of food in some areas (sic). 

This kind of retail upswing in Tier 2 towns is unprecedented at best. As I celebrate by silver jubilee in Retail this year – 25th year since I started scooping ice-cream in 1997, I have seen multiple waves in retail. The first one was around 2001, when modern retail hit the streets. Around 2008, we saw a Mall boom, primarily led by the Metro cities and Tier-2 asking for department store chains like Central, Shoppers Stop, Lifestyle, Westside among others. Around 2014, the retail growth hit a peak with several unstructured malls (zoning wise) either shutting shop or turning coats to become a commercial (offices) dwelling. Since 2017, things swung back to action, especially after the introduction of GST, much to the surprise of economic critics and experts.

We live in a pandemic world – I don’t call it a post pandemic one – because the virus is just here to stay in some form or the other. Just that we humans have become more resilient. Every 6-8 weeks, the Media Industry fuels scare with new statistics, but consumers have been dodging these overtures since Sep. ’21. This shall continue for a while and eventually pass by. But the growth of Tier 2 markets is here to stay for sometime. One big reason for this is that there is money in the pockets of the aspirational middle class. Monsoons have been good for the past 2 years, so has been Agri-production. Oil crisis has been surging ever since the Ukraine-Russia conflict began. But India and Indians have adjusted. The statistic compilation on inflations seems to read otherwise, but that’s more theory I guess. The jobless have remain so by choice, not because there is a lack of opportunity.

While a small group of people were throwing stones and torching trains at Patna Railway station last week, I saw several hundreds of youth at retail stores and malls working earnestly for a better today and tomorrow for themselves and their families. Real estate, residential and empty plots - especially if it is of any indication, then the smaller towns seem to be a better bet in terms of wealth creation. The surge in Tier 2 markets across India seems to be unstoppable, atleast in the Retail sector, one that is integral to me personally and professionally. The rent for retail stores matches metro cities by 1:1, sometimes 1: 1.5 or even more. The challenge is supply (of spaces) and not demand. This will settle down soon, as well.

 

Is Consumer Loyalty Dead?

Commencing this weekend (23 June), almost all Fashion Brands in India will go on EOSS – End of Season Sale, a biennial activity that has been witnessing a higher share of annual sales. When I used to work for Benetton as Area Manager in 2004, things were different. There used to be EOSS Twice a year followed by the “seasons” as they are called, viz., “Spring Summer (SS)” and “Autumn Winter (AW)”. EOSS would usually start after Valentine’s Day in the hope that shoppers would still shop at full price for the big day to impress their dear ones. And the next EOSS would occur after Schools and Colleges have reopened, just ahead of the Festival season that usually begins from August onwards. Slowly, things started changing, rather realigning to Global trends. Many international brands had to match their Global Fashion Calendar and the year-end Christmas Sales, so the EOSS was pushed to December & January and accordingly the next EOSS moved earlier to end-June. And that’s the current trend now.

From Apparel Department Stores to Mono Brands, almost all Brands try to exhaust their Stocks during the EOSS. Interestingly, 15 years back, EOSS was restricted to a little less than 3-4 weeks. However, now it has moved to 6-8 weeks. There are many reasons that could be attributed to this;

• There is limited seasonality these days, in a sense Customers shop all through the year compared to “Occasion-based Shopping” such as for festivals, wedding season, special occasions etc. So, while the lean periods through the year have more or less flattened, the demand spread has also evened out
• Ever since the 2008 Economic Crash worldwide, Customers have become wary of spending high on products which would eventually be available at a lower price in a few weeks (sic). While India saw a boom in Mall culture between 2009-2014, the sheer number of Brands and their availability all through the year have been a cake for the Customers with easier accessibility 365 days
• While I am not a big fan of “E-Commerce killed Offline” theory, it is a fact that there has been a reasonable impact for fashion brands, especially. This is mainly because the unsold Inventory were pushed to their digital vertical by Brands to liquidate the stocks and over time, the likes of Jabong and Myntra have become more of “Factory Outlets” where discounted Merchandise are available, always. It is no wonder that the share of products which are on Full Price on such Ecommerce Marketplaces is relatively low compared to those on Discounts. Actually, this is applicable for all categories
• Department Stores offer a larger “Discount Pie” compared to the Mono Brands, given that most of them operate on a “Buy and Sell” model with no stock returns to the Brands. Therefore, in an effort to reduce the impact of their exposure to unsold Inventory, Department Stores offer aggressive discounts & promotions to ensure they clear old stocks as much as possible. 

So, with all the above factors taken in to account, I wonder at times, is there “Brand Loyalty” left anymore especially for the Fashion Brands?

When was the last time, You – the Reader of this Article, bought the same Brand of Apparel or Footwear or Watch or Sunglasses? Are you wearing now the same Brand that you wore yesterday? If two Brands are offering similar discounts during EOSS (or even at full price), would you buy a particular Brand? If so, then why?

So, the responses could be very subjective and suits each one of our needs. 

Honestly, I do not see Consumers clinging on to any particular Brand and I attribute it to two reasons – variety offered by over Top 500 Indian and International Brands (and Labels) across products categories from Perfumes to Casual wear, formal shoes, running shoes and beyond. 

Are you rewarding your Loyal Customers just with just Loyalty Points, Sale Previews and price-offs? Is this going to be sustainable at all in the long term? 

How would you retain them for longer – LTV as they say, Life Time Value (sic)?

Luxury at a Discount!

It’s a misnomer that Luxury Brands do not discount. Of course, they do. Just that they don’t do it so loudly and obviously as other premium and streetwear brands. Except for brands such as Louis Vuitton, Rolex, Mont Blanc, to name a few, most other premium brands promote discount sales, albeit succinctly. In most cases, they are not at their own stores but at cozy 5 Star Hotels, where the Brands hire banquet halls and quietly carry on with their business. Even then, they need to communicate what’s on offer and choose smartly created advertisements and place them on national dailies. The purpose of hosting these so called “Exhibition cum Sales” is to ward off the junta crowd, most of them being on-lookers. The moment the venue is a Star Hotel, window shoppers would think twice to drop over. It doesn’t look nice, quite obviously to take a public transport to such a venue. Secondly, shoppers still feel intrigued to browse and shop in star hotels, traditionally where luxury products are being sold world over, with India not being an exception.

The other genuine reason is also that we do not have high quality luxury retail spaces in India except for the DLF Emporio Mall in Delhi, the Palladium in Mumbai and the UB City in Bangalore. While there is a small hub by the name Bergamo in Chennai (at Khader Nawaz Khan Road), the RPG Group is coming up with a luxury destination in Kolkata. Apart from these, there are hardly any retail spaces that fit in to the luxury brands’ portfolio. And that’s precisely the reason such Brands choose 5 Star Hotels as venues.

Over the weekend, one such event was hosted at The Westin, Chennai. Prada shoes for Rs. 25,000, Fendi belts for Rs. 15,000, Gucci Wallets for Rs. 18,000 and much more. Yes, these are apparently discounted prices. At 11.30am, on the only day  of sale (being a Sunday), the room was full of discerning customers. Though there were hardly a few pieces in each line, most of them were being bought by those who had dropped in. Many of these brands are not available at Retail Stores in Chennai and shoppers have to travel either to Delhi or Mumbai or probably outside of India to get one for themselves. The smart sales team were even wooing visitors with catalogues, taking orders thereby fulfilling sales orders. The display of items was not as what one would expect in a Retail Store for such products, but perhaps suited well for the “Exhibition” theme.

I tried on the Prada loafers, size 11, but felt it was too tight. As is always the case, the prices were not mentioned on the items, be it wallets or shoes and many people who are price conscious would rather not dare ask for prices, unless they were sure to buy!

India needs varied Retail spaces. What we have now are either too large malls that cater to the middle class or star hotels that house Luxury Brands. We do not have suitable spaces for luxury brands. Malls chains like Phoenix Market City are cordoning off certain areas within the mall for luxury brands. Express Avenue, the only Mall of over a million square feet in the hart of Chennai has created a nice mix of brands. Its so secluded that regular shoppers don’t even pass by that side.

In the meanwhile, keep looking for advertisements in newspapers like the one above. You may be able to get a good deal on your favourite luxury brand in town!

100% FDI in Single Brand Retail. So?!?

The Government of India officially announced allowing 100% FDI in Single Brand Retail on 9 Jan 2012. “We have now allowed foreign investment up to 100 percent with the stipulation that in respect of proposals involving FDI beyond 51 percent, there will be mandatory sourcing of atleast 30 percent of the total value of the products sold…from Indian small industries/village and cottage industries and craftsmen,” Commerce and Industry minister of India, Mr. Anand Sharma said in a statement.

(Suggested Reading: FDI in Retail – the saga continues)

The Indian Industry seems to be equally upbeat;

In an interview to ET, Future Group's CEO Mr. Kishore Biyani said, "I believe both single and multi brand retail together can bring in an investment of $10 billion in the front-end alone. I think this is a significant investment in the next four to five years, and the journey has just begun." The announcement of single brand retail has come sooner than we had expected, though. It is a good move, and a precursor to the bigger one now - the multi-brand retail announcement, added Biyani.

“We hope the initiative is a precursor to further liberalisation in the sector in the days to come,” Rajan Bharti Mittal, managing director at Bharti Enterprises, Wal-Mart’s India partner for wholesale stores, told Bloomberg.

"The notification was expected because single-brand is less controversial, as the brand will not compete with a local retailer," said Bijou Kurien, who heads the lifestyle division of Reliance Retail, which runs department stores, hyper-markets and supermarkets.

“The opening of India’s single-brand retail sector sends a crystal clear signal that India is open for business at a time when economic opportunity is certainly welcome amidst global uncertainty,” said Ron Somers, president of US-India Business Council (USIBC).

We believe that further opening up of the single brand retail clearly shows the government`s positive intent towards bringing about reforms. We see this as an important step towards further reforms in the multi-brand sector as well said broking house ICICIDirect

“Globally, single-brand retail follows a business model of 100 percent ownership and global majors have been reluctant to establish their presence in a restrictive policy environment,” the department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP), said in a statement.

(Suggested Reading: Luxury Retailing in India)

100 percent ownership would be permitted in single brand product retail trading under the government approval route, subject to the following conditions:

• Products to be sold should be of a single brand only
• Products should be sold under the same brand internationally (i.e. products should be sold under the same brand in one or more countries other than in India)
• Single brand product-retail trading would cover only products which are branded during manufacturing
• The foreign investor should be the owner of the brand
• In respect of proposals involving FDI beyond 51 percent, mandatory sourcing of at least 30 percent of the value of products sold would have to be done from Indian “small industries/village and cottage industries, artisans and craftsmen”
• Application should be submitted seeking permission from the Indian government for FDI in retail trade of single brand products to the Secretariat for Industrial Assistance in the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion
• The application will specifically indicate the product/product categories which are proposed to be sold under a single brand
• Any addition to the product/product categories to be sold under single brand would require fresh approval from the government
• Applications would be processed in the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion to determine whether the products proposed to be sold satisfy the notified guidelines, before being considered by the FIPB for government approval

(Suggested Reading: “UnHate” by Benetton)

Mono Brands such as Tommy Hilfiger, Pepe, Mont Blanc, Rolex, Pizza Hut, Costa Coffee and many others through a JV with Indian partners have been operating in India over the past years. Some like Benetton and Nike have been operating on their own, using manufacturing/marketing as their modus operandi through a predominantly franchisee model. Over the past few years, we have seen even luxury brands like Louis Vuitton, Diesel, Tumi, Armani and Versace enter the Indian Retail market through respectable JVs with the likes of Reliance Retail, DLF Brands, etc. and all of them seem to be doing well in their own way. Indian business houses such as the Tatas, Jubilant Organosys and Dabur have been happy to partner with international brands such as Zara, Dominos and Subway (respectively) and operate large franchise operations. But the fuss over 100% FDI in single brand retail seems surprising, if not confusing. Louis Vuitton, for example expects a sale of over USD 100 million from a 550 sqm outle from its only airport store in the world at Incheon International Airport, Korea. It would take LV a few years to achieve a similar number in the Indian market. In such a scenario, I wonder why would international brands invest and fund their expansion and growth in India all by their own, while there are so many Indian business houses/partners who wish to do so.

Video Courtesy: The Moodie Report

Indian and International Retailers are eagerly looking forward to the approval of 100% FDI in Multi-Brand Retail, which is not expected until the elections are over in key states such as Uttar Pradesh. Major action is expected only when the big boys of multi-brand retailing are allowed to enter India and operate directly and service end-users/customers. And that doesn’t seem to happen soon, certainly not in 2012. Hopefully, the next year – if the world doesn’t end. That is.

(Suggested Reading: Borders – a book in itself)

UnHate the campaign, atleast for the Consumer’s sake!

 

There is so much brouhaha about the most recent campaign of United Colors of Benetton, the marquee fashion brand from Europe’s fashion capital, Italy. Benetton’s in-house design agency Fabrica has created the recent campaign among many others over the years, particularly the one which showed a blood smeared baby still attached to its umbilical cord which was also a much talked about one. Benetton also had campaigns which showed a nun kissing a priest, three hearts declaring “white, yellow and black” and so on. Over the years, Fabrica has attracted global talent to work in its think tank and has been a darling of the creative minds. The recent Unhate website has this to say;

What does UNHATE mean? UN-hate. Stop hating, if you were hating. Unhate is a message that invites us to consider that hate and love are not as far away from each other as we think. Actually, the two opposing sentiments are often in a delicate and unstable balance. Our campaign promotes a shift in the balance: don’t hate, Unhate.

The UNHATE Foundation, desired and founded by the Benetton Group, seeks to contribute to the creation of a new culture of tolerance, to combat hatred, building on Benetton’s underpinning values. It is another important step in the group’s social responsibility strategy: not a cosmetic exercise, but a contribution that will have a real impact on the international community, especially through the vehicle of communication, which can reach social players in different areas.

The Foundation will organise initiatives involving different stakeholders, from the new generations to the institutions, international organisations and NGOs, through to civil society.

The Foundation also aims to be a think tank, attracting personalities and talents from the fields of culture, economy, law and politics, and people who have gone from simple citizens to leaders of movements, distinguishing themselves through their ideas and actions against the causes and effects of hatred.

UnHate Video campaign from benetton.com

The Media frenzy, as always makes it more sensational that it seems and there is enough outrage in the internet world and the real world about this. Industry leaders from the advertising world (in India) have commented on the afaqs! website, which is as follows;

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Piyush Pandey
Executive chairperson and national creative director, Ogilvy India

I think the entire campaign is sensational and unnecessary. It is certainly edgy, but being edgy does not mean that you cross limits. A lot of people will say that it is a fantastic way of doing things, but I feel there are other fantastic ways of doing things.

K V Sridhar
National creative director, Leo Burnett

The participants of Bigg Boss are supposed to behave in a certain way. Similarly, Benetton as a brand is supposed to behave in a particular way, too. If it does not behave in that manner, then it would be unique.

One other campaign of the brand showed a blood-smeared baby still attached to its umbilical cord. As a brand, it has done several such campaigns in the past. But, this time, I feel that it has done it intelligently. The message that nations/religions should not hate each other has been conveyed effectively through the best form of expression of adore - a kiss. Leaders are representatives of the masses. If they would have shown Barrack Obama hugging Hu Jintao, then it would not have been as interesting. But, this one works and is brilliantly executed.

Arun Iyer
National creative director, Lowe Lintas

It is a controversial ad. But, that is what it is supposed to do -- create controversy. Fifty per cent of the people will feel that it is in bad taste, while the other 50 per cent will find it interesting. However, despite the like or dislike, it will induce talk-ability. I think visually, it is supposed to be debatable, but at a thought level, it is not at all a debate.

The fact that this campaign has been successful in creating a debate is by itself a success of the brand and its objective. However, it is also trying to push too far.

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Well, the big question is, Does this campaign really solve the purpose of Love, or rather, Unhate? Oh, am not sure. Does this campaign appeal to the younger generation who is the intended customer base for "Brand Benetton”? Absolutely. Over the years, Benetton has seen stiff competition from Spanish fashion giant Zara (which apparently changes the design/range at its stores every few weeks) and several other brands such as Mango, Esprit and many other local brands in several markets (Benetton has over 6,000 stores across 120 countries and clocked over 2 Billion Euros in Sales in the year 2010). In India, the brand has done well in itself, thanks to its aggressive growth strategy and plans since its turnaround in 2005 under the new leadership led by its Indian division. The campaign has just gone viral and the company plans to spend over half of its less than advertising budget of 10 Million Euros  in digital media and the balance in traditional media. Like many I too wonder if this campaign will go public in the US, China, Korea and the Middle-east – the leaders of whose countries are mentioned in the said campaign. For obvious reasons, I am sure the campaign will not feature in India as well and they dare not even dream of having Indian Politicians (sic).

All said and done, it is indeed a wonderful attention-seeking opportunity for Benetton, although it is anybody’s guess if such (unwanted) publicity would necessarily translate into Sales!