The Indian Retail Apocalypse

The E-commerce companies mopped up over USD 3 billion during the Navarathri Sales late September / early October, we read in newspapers. That’s a small blip compared to the total business that usually happens all India during that period. To give a perspective, only Kolkata garnered a Sales turnover of Rs. 4,500 Crores and the State had an estimated Rs. 15,000 Crores in Sales during the Pujo Week, the Dasera Festival which is celebrated with much fervour Eastern India, especially West Bengal. For the rest of India, the Deepavali fortnight is the highest grosser akin to "Black Friday" Sales of the West (minus the discounts, usually). Most brands in the Electronics, Consumer Durables and Household Appliances businesses record 40% of their Annual Turnover during Q3 – October to December during when three important festivals occur and are celebrated all India – Deepavali, Eid and Christmas – New Year block. 

Having contributed to Amazon and Flipkart during the Big Billion Days ahead of Dasera, decided to open up my wallet at Offline Stores for my Deepavali shopping.  

Visited the iconic Express Avenue Mall in Chennai last week after a long time. Why after a long time? Because I moved to a new house late last year and don’t live closer to the Mall anymore. And there are enough stores across categories nearby current home. Looking at the sparse crowds all over, I had doubts if the mass media was actually correct about a possible slowdown. 

At least 6 CEOs / Heads of Businesses who run International / National Brands in India I spoke with over the past few days – and have known them personally, confirmed there’s no slowdown in Sales overall. Some said they have a single digit growth (over last year) and some said double-digit. Unfortunately, most of them told me not to quote them for this article. 

H&M on the other had revealed stunning sales for the past year although it’s not clear whether the Chennai store had a Y-O-Y increase in Sales or otherwise. At Rs. 1,236 Crores, it was 39% more than last year while it’s Profit grew a neat 29%. Zara, grew 17% to Rs. 1,438 Crores compared to last year. H&M & Zara operate 42 & 22 stores respectively in India. Meahile, Japanese Uniqlo opened a store at tony DLF Mall in South Delhi earlier this month and garnered a Sale of Rs. 2.20 Crores in the first two days. India's largest Department Store chain Shoppers Stop has been going through quite a metamorphosis under Rajeev Suri who took over a turbulent company two years back. Here's what he had to say to the Economic Times on where they are headed. Lifestyle, Dubai based Landmark Group's flagship chain has it various stores reporting mixed numbers, thanks to various geo-social changes in the consumption patterns. 

After seven fulfilling years in a healthy JV with the Tata Group, Starbucks aims to break-even this FY with an estimated store count of 185+ cafes all India. Dominos Pizza, India's largest F&B chain reported a 12% growth over last year while most other F&B companies, organized or semi-organised have seen a significant increase in Sales despite the hype over Food hailing Apps such as Swiggy and Zomato from whose channel, restaurants garner about 15-20% Sales. Even local eateries and restaurants have not seen a significant dip in outlet sales, which is usually compensated with online orders. A few local players have shut shop indeed but that's due to internal inefficiencies. 

The Multiplex industry, on the other hand is on a roll with PVR Cinemas, the market leader recording 25% more admits, 37% increase in Total Income and 149% increase in EBIDTA and 35% increase in Net Profits while there is a slew of films in Hindi, Tamil, Telugu and more Indian languages slated for release soon and which are expecting a big round of BO in the coming months. Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad claimed he was quoted out of context when he described the economy in healthy mode comparing the BO outcomes of a few films. And the American theory of Entertainment Industry doing well during a slowdown - well, probably yes for them but not in Indian when most Indians are scrambling for 3 meals and a healthy, wealthy living even when the Economy was apparently doing very well. 

There is NO Slowdown as is being projected everywhere in Mainstream Media. Yes, some industries have seen correction in the way they are run – from neighborhood Pharmacies to Auto-Dealers. Local Pharmacists cannot purchase medicines anymore without a valid GST Invoice which has affected their business overall since most small shops have never been used to paying VAT. Auto-Dealers were being dumped with stocks by Automobile Companies in the name of Primary Sales which has seen a collection. Commercial Vehicle Sales have come down, thanks to better quality of vehicles manufactured over the past decade, a faster TAT of trips thanks to GST and limited / nil local bureaucracy and of course the diesel price impact being absorbed by everyone in the value chain. 

No Indian has stopped spending or planning to stop spending. If people were buying a lot of grocery and vegetables, they have reduced shopping but this has been well compensated with Swiggy and Zomato Sales! And similarly in every other industry.

There is absolutely no scope of a RETAIL APOCALYPSE in India yet. Not for the next 30 years at least. Stop worrying and start spending like before. 

Happy Deepavali.

My i Vs. Mi Experiences

I purchased my Mobile SIM card for the first time in the year 2002 in Chennai from Aircel and that number is still active. My my first handset was an Ericsson followed by Samsung R220, the first mobile phone launched in India with a multi-colour display. This was followed by a few Nokia models over a decade and a Sony Ericsson P1i before I finally moved to Blackberry. A few models and 4 years later, I moved on to the Apple Ecosystem with iPhone 4S in 2011. I upgraded to 5S, 6 and 7 over the years as well as including other i-Devices such as 3 generations of iPod, 2 variants of iPads, a MacBook, Apple Tv and finally an iWatch. With a paid plan for Apple Music and a huge storage on iCloud, I don’t have to worry about my stuff on the hard disk anymore, for its all safe and secure, “Up in the Air”. Hopefully. With a seamless integration within the iOS, it is almost impossible for me to move out of the Apple Ecosystem anymore and I guess I will remain clued in here. however, when the announcements for new models of iPhone XS & XS Max were announced last month, I had less interest than last year for the iPhone 8 & X. Somehow I felt that Apple has stopped making mobile phones for common users and is perhaps focusing on a niche segment who can use most of their offering.

Notwithstanding my self-prejudice for a coveted Brand and its products that I love so much, I decided to visit a Retail Store to physically touch and see the new launches. On a sunny Chennai afternoon last weekend, visited an upmarket Mall in the City, which for some strange reason has four retail stores next to & opposite to each other who sell multi-brands of Mobile phones and accessories apart from an Apple Premium Reseller (APR) and a Mi Experience Store. Even before I could visit the APR I happened to see the new iPhones at one of Tamil Nadu’s leading multi-brand Retail Store. The Staff were as uninterested as I were and they hardly explained why the new damn thing costs a lakh and fifty thousand bucks, with which one can but at least three new laptops or 15 mediocre mobile phones or perhaps even 5 top-end new mobile phone models. I didn’t bother to even ask queries and quickly moved on to the next chore with the family. Was having a sad grin on my face that the same “me” had waited at the same Mall five years back in a queue for four hours on a sunny November afternoon along with my better half to buy my Apple iPhone 5S on the launch day. How things change, huh!

My wife has been asking me to buy her a wearable device to measure footsteps, which we have been exploring for the past few days. Surprisingly, Croma and Reliance didn’t have a wide range while the Mi Experience Store at Express Avenue Mall didn’t have the widely popular Mi Watch 2. The staff at the Mi Store was unapologetic that it wasn’t available at their flagship store in South Chennai and instead advised us to visit a few days later when it would arrive at the Store. Really? Do Brand staff think Customers will Queue up anymore for their once coveted products? We ended up buying at another store whose Sales staff surprised us and matched the same price as the Mi Experience store where the device’s price is Rs. 200 lower than outside. At the Mi Experience store, I saw a wide range of products including LED TVs but another flagship Mi A5 model of Mobile Phone wasn’t available, once again. 

Recently, I was reading how Best Buy has embraced omni-channel in the US by ensuring a wide variety of models across Brands were made available at the Store and the Retailer also offered multiple models of delivery such as in-store, same day delivery, Day +1 delivery, at home delivery, etc. This was the only way they could counter the intense competition from Amazon in the US. Back in India, things remain unchanged. Croma has a namesake omni-channel model but the staff are disinterested in taking the effort. The bigger surprise was Mi Experience Store, where the staff could have immediately engaged with us, potential buyers of a Watch to browse the range on a device kept right at the store where one could browse and buy with a deliver in a day or two, Lost opportunity. 

This is just my personal experience and am damn sure there are millions of such experiences across the world where Customers are walking away without purchasing, thanks to disinterested staff and their respective Managements. A report in the Economic Times suggests that of the 1 lakh units kept ready for the opening weekend in India, not more than 50% were sold, thanks to low interest of Customers for various reasons, from new innovations to pricing. This is a first for Apple, what with already sagging Sales and the same trend could continue if they keep making iPhones which people stop buying for snob-value. And a younger brand like Mi which boasts of giving a run for money with its devices could do better with Merchandise Planning some Staff training. hope that’s not asking for too much from a Brand which has apparently carved a niche for itself.  

Can Malls resurrect?

I went to a once-upon-a-time popular Mall in Chennai a week back – to watch a movie at Inox. I went 10 mins before the show began; during the intermission, I bought a Samosa and Tea for Rs. 200 and left the venue just after the film ended. There was nothing for me in the mall to hang around. No coffee shops, interesting retail concepts, a poorly scattered food court and absolutely uninteresting Mall Management. The toilet was a saving grace, neat and clean as always. 

Chennai Citi Centre was one of the earliest new-age Malls in Chennai which opened almost a decade back. Compared to the previously popular and hugely successful Spencer’s Plaza, Citi Centre managed by the ETA Group preferred to lease retail spaces as against selling them like Spencer’s. The initial euphoria was huge – located on RK Salai leading to the world-famous Marina Beach and the road being used by two former Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu viz., Dr. Karunanidhi and Dr. J Jayalalitha for their daily commute. The road was in its best form all these years with Traffic Police stationed all day and night as well as reasonably safe. The Mall opened with Chenai’s iconic Landmark Store, Lifestyle and Inox as anchors followed by Foodworld, Mc Donalds & KFC in the food court and roof top; a slew of national and international brands followed. The “Marina” food court had some interesting concepts offering a range of food and beverage options. Café Coffee Day was conspicuously missing inside. Instead, CCD opened a café right opposite the Mall which continues to be a crowd puller. The Atrium would be used for interesting events and activities.

A few years in to it’s bull run, Express Avenue Mall opened 3 kms away, followed by Phoenix Market City two years back. With a spread of no more than 2 lakh sq.ft for Retail and F&B, Inox Cinemas spread over 30,000 sft, private Office spaces spread over 20,00 sft. and two levels of basement Car Parking, the Mall had little to offer in terms of retail space. As always, Small is Beautiful. Plus, it had a great locational advantage. But the Mall Management let the mall die a slow death for reasons best known to them. Almost all the original Retailers have vacated but for Basics Life and Giordano apart from Lifestyle and Inox. I approached the Mall Management two years back and suggested we could do wonders with what we have on hand and give a run for money due to its locational advantage and easy access to South Madras. They refused to oblige and have remained adamant on letting the opportunity pass by. Even now, the mall is sitting on a gold mine, if only one could take a serious look at what could be done to make it great, once again. 

Citi Centre is not an isolated case. During the Mall boom in India between 2006 – 2012, about 800 Malls of all shapes and sizes were operational at its peak across India’s Top 50 cities & towns. Thanks to a slowing economy since 2013 onwards, uncertain consumer sentiment and tough business conditions, more than half of them have shut down or have morphed in to Office spaces. A recent research report suggested that the Mall vacancies have improved off late and over 80 Malls are expected to open in the next 24 months across India. As we speak about this, VR Chennai opened its doors to the city just a month ago, spread over a million sft. 

So what happens to these Malls which do not get the desired traffic (of customers) anymore? Many people compare this situation to the Ghost Malls in the US, which I believe is not fair. The Indian Economy continues to show strong signs but for some shortfalls here and there. Older Malls can be resurrected, if only the Mall Owners prefer to do so. In our country where most of the Malls are owned by Real Estate companies, their only focus is generating a certain “revenue” per sft. Taking an extra mile to get consumers walking in regularly and keeping them hooked – this is no rocket science. Can be done pretty easily at much lower costs with very minimal efforts. Add to this, inefficient Management Teams in many cases who have never worked earlier in Malls or have a deeper understanding of Retail dynamics. Just that the Mall Owners must come out of their slumber and their fixation for a certain “fixed” revenue model and consider Professional Management. Malls are community centers and Mall owners must connect with the consumers and not just their bank a/cs.

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We are Chennai…

It was long pending but took a drive all the way up to the latest entrant in Chennai, the newly opened (partially though) VR Chennai, a Retail Centre spanning over 6 lakh square feet (in the first phase) adjoining the outer ring road, just outside the acceptable (hic!) city limits.  Planned and executed by Virtuous Retail, a Mall Management Company which has its Mall's presence at Surat, Bangalore and Punjab, the Centre is almost an oasis, what with a fantastic spread of Retail, F&B and Entertainment Opportunities in the anvil. 

The Mall is located north of Koyambedu, west of Anna Nagar and just after the Arumbakkam flyover. That this place existed for a huge strcture such as a Mall to come up came us a surprise to many in the city including a lot of Retail Professionals. 

So why does Chennai need yet another Mall while the existing ones are not providing double digit returns to Retailers? Why yet another Multiplex while the number of cinema goes has been steadily decreasing over the years, thanks to alternate entertainment options such as OTT Apps? Why should Brands invest heavily in yet another Retail  experiment (of sorts) while the existing Retail spaces are yet to be fully sweat?

Frankly, I have no answers on behalf of the whole of the Retail Fraternity. But here are my observations.

Chennai has historically been a high-street market, despite the so-called evolution and revolution of Malls and Shopping Centres in India since 2006. One of India’s first shopping centres came up at Chennai in the late 1990s – the iconic Spencers Plaza. It was a welcome break for shoppers who would otherwise throng the likes of T. Nagar, Purasawalkam fraught with heat and humidity while Spencers (as it was nicknamed) was the first a/c mall in India (Crossroads was just coming up in Mumbai but had entry restrictions while Ansal Plaza in Delhi was non A/c). Spencers was a super hit from day one with the second and third phases coming up in bursts but that’s when the High street Market continued to dominate and thanks to a property-ownership model at Spencers, leasing larger spaces was a challenge. And the mall slowly lost its sheen.

For a city of its size, there are just three malls of a reasonable size & scale -  Express Avenue, Phoenix Market City and Forum Vijaya Mall which together have about 20 lakh soft of actual Retail (minus the Cinemas). Interestingly, these three Malls form a nice Triangle while seen on a Map. The earliest entrant City Centre (Mylapore) failed due its own inefficiencies while the Ampa Mall (Arumbakkam) did quite well in its early years and slowly added fatigue & monotony; A suburban Grand Mall (at Velachery) sitting on a gold mine lost due to internal challenges of choosing the right sort of Clients. Then there is a Marina Mall on OMR which is yet to take off fully while the Spectrum Mall at Padi is a non-starter. MARG, the construction to research conglomerate lost out on a fantastic opportunity with it’s Mall structure half complete and lying idle for more than 5 years. 

So why a new Mall now?

I personally think that this Mall is a breather for Shoppers to avoid the congested bylanes of Anna Nagar and its periphery and head to this wonderful premises instead where they get an equal share of shopping, dining & entertainment.  For Retailers, this is a boon come true of sorts. Reason: The city had expanded in the deep south on OMR a decade back; it expanded towards Tambaram five years back. However, the western suburbs have been neglected for long. With so many thousands of people heading to work all the way up to Sriperumbudur daily, there is a huge chunk of middle class settlement happening in this part of the city. Also, there are very few options where a discerning Shopper gets satisfied with variety which VR Chennai is sure to offer.

I hope PVR Cinemas open soon, with a slew of films slated to release starting with Kamal Hassan’s Viswaroopam in August all the way up to November when Superstar Rajnikanth’s 2.0 will release after the recent Kaala. Now the question is will they be able to fill the cinemas, especially with newer challenges every day.