G for Grocery Retail – Then Vs. Now

From shopping grocery at Kirana stores to Government Ration Shops to one of the first organized retail shops in India to the supermarkets and hypermarkets and finally now with my own mobile Apps for Grocery, I would say I have been lucky to see them all. My tryst with Grocery shopping is cut to the early 90s when I would accompany my father to the state-run TUCS shops and PDS shops and bring, rice, dal & kerosene kept on the back of our bicycles. During the late 90s, a retail shop named Subiksha opened in the heart of South Chennai – a store similar to a PDS but a bit modern with staff in uniform who assisted customers with their shopping needs and a computerized bill to support the transaction. I remember cycling 5 kms to buy 3 kgs of sugar, which would save us 10-12% than buying from the neighborhood Kirana shop. I used to be amazed at how shopping was revolutionized in the late 90s with the advent of “Shop n Stop” a modern retail store close to my house in Royapettah that encouraged self-service, which was not just a fancy thing but also a very convenient one.

I was fortunate in the early 2000s to join and work with RPG Retail’s Foodworld Supermarkets, which was one of the earliest organized retail stores in India. From consumer offers to world class shopping experiences, the company paved the way for future entrants with this format of retailing. When I joined the Future Group, I witnessed how a humble 1,500 sft of a supermarket had morphed itself into a hypermarket with Food Bazaar spread over 10,000 sft at its largest outlet then in 2004 and that too on the fourth floor of India’s first seamless Mall, Bangalore Central. Till date, our family has shopped only at Food Bazaar in over 95% of cases. That’s some loyalty, rather just the convenience of shopping the entire household I would say. Late 2000s was the challenging periods for Retail, although not as worse as what we’ve been witnessing for the past 24 months. Hypermarkets reduced their sizes and have found the 4,000 sft model as their sweetspots and are still tweaking their models.

Since the turn of the decade in 2010, we have seen online retailers come and go and behemoths like Big Basket stay on with a supposedly proven model. I would like to cite the example of IBuyFresh.com which was the online effort of Kovai Pazhamudir Nilayam, a Coimbatore based Retail store that started with fresh Fruits & vegetables and later moved on to the Grocery & Household segments. The e-commerce start-up, which was serving over 800 orders a day in just 6 months of commencing shut down abruptly one day due to viability issues. Others like Peppertap and Local Banya raised millions of dollars to eventually shut down their ventures leaving smaller players like my own Hyperlocal start-up Oyethere.com in jeopardy, what with Investors sitting on the fence not wanting to experiment on new models any further.

Much has been spoken about Amazon’s self-service, self-check-out store in America which is a dubbed as a smart-store where customers pick products off the shelves which get billed while picking-up and the check-out is super quick with just a tap of their credit cards or mobile phones (NFC payments). Grocery shopping worldwide and in India has been seeing a lot of new opportunities, of course with challenges but perhaps, remains the most interesting retail format.

E for Empowerment - Employee Empowerment

Have you felt that the restaurant where you spent a few hundreds or even thousands provided a great meal but the service was basic, if not atrocious?

Have you experienced cashiers without any life at cash tills in supermarkets who hardly look at the customers faces?

Have you encountered sales staff at apparel boutiques who are not interested to show you varieties of merchandise?

Have you seen sales staff at a mobile retail store who are more engrossed in their own smartphones playing games or watching Youtube than serving you?

There are many such examples that we could discuss in detail and the prime reason for this is that the Retailer has provided limited or nil empowerment to the staff. I had a similar example this morning. I was at Café Coffee Day Ispahani Centre (Chennai) with a guest and we ordered two cold beverages which arrived fashionably late after 10 minutes. One sip and the Frappe was lesser by a quarter. In 3-4 minutes my drink was over! And it was meant to be a cold drink. After a while, I went to order a Cappuccino and again had issues with the staff who were novices and were under training while the senior guy was not around. When he appeared suddenly I told him about the cold-less Frappe and he just gave me a blank look – nothing more. No apology, no offer to replace the drink, nothing. I wouldn’t blame him. This is how most of our large Retail chains work who are facing severe challenges in employee management.

While we could debate what the staff in the above example could have done, I think the issue should be addressed at the Corporate level than at the store level. Worldwide, many retail stores, especially in services businesses such as food and entertainment have given a lot of empowerment to their staff across hierarchies. For example, walk in to a Starbucks and order a drink – if you didn’t like it and inform the guys behind the counter, they would just replace it without battling an eyelid. Yes, there could be some cunning customers who do it purposely to give a try for some new beverages, but “Customer Delight” which we discussed in the previous article is foremost for such Retail Brands than the few sour apples.

Indeed, many small and medium retailers have empowered their staff immensely and I must give credit to such Entrepreneurs as well. It is not without a reason that some brands have grown their businesses immensely while established ones falter. Even large retailers are empowering their staff. Case in example: The Store Managers at The Future Group outlets are designated as “Kartas” not without a reason. Karta is the official name of the person who heads a business managed by a Hindu United Family (HUF) and the Future Group has just taken a leaf out of it. The Karta of a Future Group is fully empowered to take decisions pertaining to his/her store, ofcourse what’s within their areas of power & consideration.

There is inertia among Business owners to empower their staff due to trust deficit and employee dependability. However, with the right coaching & mentoring, this can be very well be overcome and businesses can indeed succeed.

Retail horoscope 2017

There have been predictions written about sun signs and moon signs. So, I set-out writing one for the Retail Industry in which I complete 20 years this year . These are not purely fictional but I see things going this way. Take a look and let me know what you think.

Kirana Stores

The largest Retail segment, the sem-organized and unorganized Kirana Stores are set for a huge overhaul. With the onset of demonetization, Kirana stores do not have a choice but to go digital. All this while, most of them have been collecting cash for sales which mostly go unaccounted causing a great loss to the exchequer. This will change in 2017. From Bank EDC machines to Mobile Wallets, they will start accepting every form of money other than cash. A robust y-o-y growth is also seen in this business model.

Supermarkets

Neighborhood Supermarkets from large retail chains have already been making a comeback. Nilgiris is leading from the front through Franchising, while Aditya Birla More seems to merge with Future Group, and so would Heritage Retail this year. None of the supermarket chains have an online presence due to reasons best known to them. I don’t see any change here. Heritage is experimenting something but I am not sure if they would be scale up like the Hyperlocal players. Margins will be strained and even store profitability will be a challenge. I see more consolidation in 2017 among the medium sized players.

Hypermarkets

The most abused retail format of the last half a decade, the Hypermarkets have come a full circle. As I write this article, the store sizes have come down from 25,000-45,000 sft to as low as 8,000 sft. While poor availability of retail space is one of the reasons, the sheer ability to sell higher volumes like in Western markets is the core reasons. Indian customers prefer fresh products, be it rice or atta or oil or vegetables and fruits. Also, the households are smaller in size, so are the kitchens and refridgerators. Quite obviously the trolley size will be smaller. With most Mall spaces exhausted and almost no new Mall of any significance across major metros, Hypers may look for standalone sites in suburban areas.

Apparel Retail / Specialty

With a chunk of this format having moved online, from Diapers to Accessories to shirts to dresses, this offline retail format would see more store exits in 2017. The franchisee-dominated model will find few takers and loss making / average performing stores will be closed or consolidated. Malls are already operating at an average 15-25% vacancy of Vanilla Store locations and this year will be worse with burgeoning rent and maintenance cost (the CAM Scam!). Consumers will move towards E-Commerce for specialty retail and will be fine to shop even with limited or nil discounts due to the convenience it offers. Bad year for Retailers in this space which will see many small and regional Brands winding up.

Consumer Durables Retail

With E-Commerce already swooping a majority of consumer durable retail sales, such Retailers will be left in the lurch. Brands, who have initially supported offline retailers in the mid-2000s have started balancing their act with e-commerce. 2017 will see a swing in their loyalties towards e-commerce players. With tighter margins, higher rentals, surging operating costs, many such Retailers dealing in Consumer Durables will consolidate their store count while many would shut stores which are not making enough profits. Overall very challenging year for retailers in this space.

Jewelry Retail

The most affected sector after Demonitization is this retail format. Various media reports suggest how some leading players made a killing on 8^th and 9^th Nov. 2016 after the Prime Minister made the historical announcement. With 90% or more of their business in cash, and it’s quite well known how much of them get accounted, Bullion retailers will face heat the most. A significant number of stores would be thrown out of business. Large chains which have PE Investments made based on PPTs and Excel File projections will face a blank wall, with valuations diving deep and would find the going very tough. Extremely tough year for Retailers in this space. The market will dictate terms in May around Akshaya Trithiya when consumers go bonkers buying bullion.

Food & Beverage

With the Industry having matured in the last decade, it is time for consolidation for F&B Retailers. With scale in place, players like CCD, Dominos and McD will now consolidate their presence and focus on store EBIDTA. New initiatives such as Home Delivery and signing up with delivery companies will bring more business while a tired economy will put pressure on attract store footfalls. Outlet sizes will reduce by 30-50% across formats. There is a sudden upswing in specialty bars and pubs and this trend will continue. A growing and discerning set of gastro-enthusiasts will mean new entrants and new formats are on the anvil. Interesting space for Startups in this space.

 E-Commerce

It’s been 10 years since Flipkart the market leader was born. Sadly, this year would be the most challenging to the company that made e-commerce take off in this country where less than 10% of the Retail Industry is organized. With 1,000s of e-commerce companies of various sizes and shapes, names and offering in the market, the space would see a blood bath this year too. Most such companies which did not have a significant differentiator will have to bid adieu. Less than a Billion Dollar will go in to investments in existing companies while new startups will find the going tough. Amazon will consolidate itself in the market and will become a household name with higher market share and mind share. Hyperlocal Market places which connect offline retailers online will have a good run, since this model is reasonable new to customers. There will be some consolidation in this space too but new entrants will carve a niche. Reasonable investments are expected in this space.

Consumer

A weak economy, struggling to grow since the last 5 years will mean strained purses for consumers. They will be cautious this year on spending and will demand quality and service from Retailers than ever before. 

Are Cafes sustainable?

The most discussed topic these days in Retail circles in India is the impending IPO of the company that runs the Cafe Coffee Day chain of stores. The holding company, Coffee Day Enterprises is planning to raise ₹1,150 Crores from the Indian Stock Market for which Draft Herring Prospectus has been submitted recently. The company is among the few of its peers such as The Future Group, Shoppers Stop, Trent(Tata's) and Dominos (Jubiliant Organosys) who have gone public with the companies. CDE plans to utilise the money raised for paring debts and for expansion almost on an equal basis. The company started out renting its premises for Internet enthusiasts to browse in 1996 while also encouraging them to buy a good cup of Cappuccino, coffee that is prepared and presented in the Italian style for 5 times the price of a normal cup of coffee. Very soon, the company decided to change its strategy for Internet to consumer and positioned itself as a place for conversations and more. The rest is history. 

A lot happens over Coffee, is not just the tag line for CCd but also something that is real. A lot of things get done at cafe similar to CCd such as Costa, Barista, Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, and of course at Starbucks, the world's largest cafe chain which entered India in 2012 in a joint venture with Tata's. I was at a Starbucks for over 4 hours yesterday, which included a one hour meeting, a half an hour call and rest of the time on Mails and office work. During those four hours, not more than two tables were empty for more than 5 mins. The cafe was running at full occupancy. There were people working on their Macs and other laptops, a few who were reading stuff on their books and devices and one man sitting next to me who watched a full movie! 

With an Investment of over ₹1 crore in interiors and hefty rents for locations, this SBUX outlet does a Sale of about ₹40-50 Lakhs a month. Compare that with ₹3/5 Lakhs that a CCD would do, albeit with 1/4 th the investment and 50% lesser opex. So, are these cafes really viable in the long term?

Answer is Yes and No. 

Cafes are viable in the medium to long term provided they receive continuous and healthy patronage. Keeping aside the Capex and Opex for a moment, the cafes would be profitable not just financially but as a Brand asset in the medium to long term when their occupancy remains high. Consumers walk in to a cafe for the coffee (and food) for only 30%. The rest is for the experience in itself and a peaceful me-only space that one doesn't get at home or workplace. 

It is far easier to be viable as a single store than as a chain of stores, for Ny format in Retail. Most of the Indian Retailers are bleeding due to unresponsive assets in the form of their stores and high costs of operations including servicing debts. This will change over time with Retailers finding new avenues for their revenues. But what about cafes? CCD took a strategic position to be the nearest cafe in every neighbourhood and that has paid off. There are over 1,400 cafes across four formats in over 250 cities in India apart from a handful of them in Austria and Malaysia. Most of the cafes for CCD are operationally viable and are not seeking money from Corporate anymore. The newer ones face tough competition with the traditional outlets, especially with the changing landscape in the out of home consumption sector.

Cafes have always been viable provided you get the fundamentals correct. So, for every Java Green and Barista, there is a SBUX and CCD as examples. As the saying goes, the 120 bucks you paid for the coffee is actually not for the coffee but for the sofa and a/c. With the increasing trend of people working in casual environments, cafes will have a large impact on our lives. Next - probably a Bollywood fil, on how cafes have made or broken marriages! Watch this space. 

Breaking fast the traditional way!

Indians are fond of their meals, especially their breakfast. Except that they find increasing lesser time - to prepare as well as to consume. A typical bachelor skips his or her breakfast atleast 17 times or more a month according to a survey conducted by the students of a premier B-School in Chennai. And most other times, their obvious choice is Maggi or Bread & Jam prepared in a jiffy at home or hostel or mansion where they live. In the family households, its usually Idly/Dosa in the South Indian households on the weekdays and something a bit more exciting on the weekends when the family spends more time together. Typically, the breakfast options include Omlette with Eggs and/or Parathas/Puris in the North & East of India while it is the ubiquitous Vada Pav & Poha in the West and Central parts of India. The upwardly mobile and the health conscious have moved on to more healthier options such as Corn Flakes and Oats, which is more a fad at the moment than a habit. Doctors prescribe atleast 3-4 short meals a day with a 3-4 hour break in between and recommend that the Breakfast should be the most healthy and sumptuous while Dinner should be the least. 

With increasing awareness through TV and Social Media coupled with higher spending power, consumers are naturally looking at better options for their breakfast. India has the highest number of Diabetics in the world and those having this disorder are stricter with their diet regimen than the others. A large segment of Senior citizens who are part of SEC A+ A and B are also quite health conscious with their diet, especially their breakfast. And this is good news to companies who are operating in this segment. Kellogs India has been present in India for 15 years now and has gradually replaced traditional breakfast with their corn flakes over the years. There are many variants of the Corn Flakes now and are an attractive for people of all ages. Another rapidly growing breakfast category is the good old Oats, but in a new avatar. Oats has several benefits: cholesterol, sugar and weight control; easy to digest; filling and energising; fibrous; and easy to prepare, says a Nielsen India report, 'Oats are making waves at the breakfast table'. The annual sale of oats is growing at 38%, higher than the breakfast cereal category's 21.7% growth according to the report. Quaker Oats is the market leader in the organized Retail segment followed by Kellogg's, Saffola (from the house of Marico Industries) and Horlicks (from Glaxo Smithkline). 

Kellogg's has done a lot of innovative and interesting Marketing over the years and some of them have been within the confines of the retail stores as well as outside through traditional and social media. At Retail Stores such as Food Bazaar, part of the 12,000 Crore Future Group, Kellogg's conducts sampling exercises of its corn flakes and oats to customers - normally a small portion is given to sample the product and apparently, there is a 30% conversion of users to buy the product, according to Ms. Smita (29), a product associate at one of the retail locations who has been promoting Kellogg's products for over 2 years now. Saffola provides samples of oats along with 2/5 Litre Oil packs to its customers and such exercises are undertaken at premium retail outlets to reach out to the relevant target segments. "Kellogg leads the ready-to-eat cereal category and is a major player in oats. It continues to innovate and invest. Kellogg's Oat-bites is the only ready-to-eat in the market. We expect to see sustained growth in breakfast cereals, driven by consumers' increasing nutrition awareness and spending power," said Sangeeta Pendurkar, MD, Kellogg India in an interview to Hindustan Times.

On Pongal day this year (15 Jan. 2015), which is celebrated as Harvest Festival in the South of India, Kellogg's put out an interesting advertisement on the first page of The Hindu - proposing readers to switch over to Oats pongal as an alternative to the traditional Pongal which is made out of Rice & Ghee. The idea had a mixed response among readers. My 73 years old aunt was happy to note that there was such an option from Kellogg's - she has been consuming Oats for a couple of years now and sensed that this could be tastier and crunchier as well. Some people felt that nothing can be replaced by the steaming hot traditional rice pongal which is consumed with a tinge of liquid ghee on it. 

From a "call to action" point of view, I felt that they could have done a bit more than just mere advertising. In today's context, Modern Marketing is all about reaching out to consumers collaboratively. Kellogg's could have perhaps provided free samples along with the newspaper, quipped someone. I spoke to a general marketing practitioner and he said most companies have refrained from such activities because a few retailers take advantage by buying newspapers themselves and hoarding the free samples. Also, logistically, it is a nightmare to attach a sample pack with every newspaper, especially at 3 am in the morning when the newspapers reach the distributors. Instead, Kellogg's could have tied up with a prominent retailer which could have provided free samples. This way, the brand could have collaborated with a Retailer to drive footfalls which benefits the latter as well while attracting massive visibility. The paper-cutting could have been used to redeem the sachets at the retail store. And perhaps the customer would have also bought a thing or two in addition to the free sample. The same Ad through the Kellogg's Facebook Page could have generated much interest to the internet addicts as well - they could show the Ad to the retailer to get a sachet too!

The upcoming years would be interesting times for Retailers and Brands. Its not about selling (products) to consumers anymore. Its all about engaging them for the long term. And we have just begun.