Upwards & Northwards! Finally

On Thursday, Fitch Solutions, one of the world’s top rating agency estimated that India’s HHS – Household spending would grow 7.9% y-o-y in 2021 after 14% contraction in the year 2020 due to the Corona pandemic. In nominal terms, the HHS is estimated to be Rs. 125 lakh crores (whatever number of Zeroes, that is!), a 3.3% growth over 2019. Not bad at all, huh. Food & non-alcoholic drinks is expected to grow the highest among all other consumption categories and this, in my humble opinion is perhaps the biggest good news of the year! 

Here’s why I feel that this will propel the economy to a large extent.

India has an estimated 14 million kiranas and retail touch points – who sell anything from cigarettes, biscuits, tea, coffee, grocery all the way to other household items including consumer durables, fashion, footwear among others. This segment drives India’s consumption opportunity, a key reason why the Amazons, the Walmarts, the Wall street Investors all the way to the Chinese & Japanese billionaires and everyone in between are eyeing a small pie in the Great Indian Retail Story which is yet to unfold. The world has been witnessing an ugly battle in the public involving some of the most reputed businessmen and their companies, thanks to a hostile take over which has seen stiff resistance from the other. Meanwhile, Indians are jolly well shopping their home needs and personal requirements through gadgets – apps as well as a simple phone call to order their roti, kapda and makaan – quite literally. 

I started working in the retail Industry 24 years back scooping ice-cream and later with one of the pioneers of Grocery Retail, Foodworld Supermarkets two decades back. Even back then, most Indians in bigger cities had to travel not more than 2 kms to buy their food and grocery. Every locality and neighborhood had a kirana store who offered personalised and tailor-made solution for her / his customers. From topping the shopping bag with FMCG freebies (what we call as Loyalty points these days) to offering a chocolate to the kid (instant gratification in today’s terms) all the way to a speedy home delivery (some Start-Ups who never made a transaction level profit over 10 years are now Unicorns!) and so on. The Kirana offered credit at a time when a “Credit Card” was a western phenomenon and raised capital – through internal accruals and market offering, rather than the obnoxious Equity based Investments.

Cut to 2021, my excitement with the latest Fitch report is simple. Though the Kiranas have dwindled in real numbers – not because the Modern Retailers or E-Commerce companies replaced them – rather than many of them did not have second-gen successors to run their businesses, they have simply been replaced by “Convenience Stores” – family owned as well as Corporates who vie for the consumer’s spends. And daily shopping for Food & Grocery shall never go out of fashion in the India’s consumption story. As most Indian households are small and barely have refridgerators, and even if they do, no more than 165 – 200 litres that cannot hold over 2-3 days’ needs; the kitchens of India are big enough to accommodate one adult to stand and cook with a provision to carry 3-4 weeks dry grocery requirements. Daily use items like Milk, Biscuits and snacks are almost bought every other day, rather than the large packs of colas, juices and nachos which are more the western phenomenon. Small is Beautiful and India’s sachet revolution is a glaring example of how and what India consumes.

If you are unable to relate to most of the above, I can understand as yours and my house are perhaps a lot bigger than the majority of consumers in India, for you are reading this on a digital gadget which is a privilege for a few of us Indians. The majority still read physical newspapers, watch sops and news on TV sets and shop from their neighborhood stores as they walk back home after work or leisure. In fact, shopping is a form of entertainment in India, isn’t it, for we make-up and dress up for buying groceries or eat at a restaurant.

I have always reckoned that “Consumption is Growth” compared to “Consumption leads to growth”. The moment, we are consuming, there is a need to repurchase and the cycle continues. The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed us behind, but not by light years. The recovery across segments, from automobiles to entry level smart phones, consumer durables to even the more discretionary types, is a confidence boosting measure that things are back on track, slowly but surely.

As Indians, what we can do to boost our economy is to consume. And consume a tad more than the previous one. Be it our daily dose of coffee & tea to household needs or fashion, every rupee that we spend will go in to building back India, one step at a time. But where’s the money to spend, one may ask. I have eternally believed that India is one country where no Indian can sleep hungry – if they choose to work and earn their meal. Such is the opportunity in this country. While lakhs of people have been displaced of their daily jobs, we have seen a resurgence in our mental strengths, especially from the marginally placed and the lower strata of the society. One will find enough work in this country, if they choose to. And the entire ecosystem has to work together. Am I living and writing this from Utopia, No. Am I sure that we shall survive this crisis? Well, we have always created history with our resilience over the centuries and this pandemic is also one which shall pass by. 

Back to the Fitch estimates, Food and Grocery are the real propellers to the Economy’s consumption pattern. We earn our dough, spend at the neighborhood stores which employ people and provide them a livelihood; they in turn spend on their basic necessities and slowly but surely increase their non-discretionary spends and the cycle continues. Daravi in Mumbai has more set-top boxes than many urban clusters in India, remember. 

At Levista, where we sell Instant and Filter Coffee across Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, we have grown 50% in our sales over last year (and we have 1 more calendar month to finish). I added 70% more manpower this year over last and increased retail touch points by 3 times to 79,000 as of 1 Mar. 2021. And we still occupy less than 2% of the Rs. 2,200 Crores pa packaged Coffee market in India which excludes B2B / Restaurant & Café consumption business. We have just begun, I believe. With a 98% headroom to grow and such confidence building measures – our real growth as well as estimates like that of Fitch solutions, I guess we are headed upwards and northwards, even as we should remain grounded to reality with a eye and ear on the consumer who’s always sending us notes, thoughts and reactions. If only we listen… more!

 

The Indian Retail Apocalypse

The E-commerce companies mopped up over USD 3 billion during the Navarathri Sales late September / early October, we read in newspapers. That’s a small blip compared to the total business that usually happens all India during that period. To give a perspective, only Kolkata garnered a Sales turnover of Rs. 4,500 Crores and the State had an estimated Rs. 15,000 Crores in Sales during the Pujo Week, the Dasera Festival which is celebrated with much fervour Eastern India, especially West Bengal. For the rest of India, the Deepavali fortnight is the highest grosser akin to "Black Friday" Sales of the West (minus the discounts, usually). Most brands in the Electronics, Consumer Durables and Household Appliances businesses record 40% of their Annual Turnover during Q3 – October to December during when three important festivals occur and are celebrated all India – Deepavali, Eid and Christmas – New Year block. 

Having contributed to Amazon and Flipkart during the Big Billion Days ahead of Dasera, decided to open up my wallet at Offline Stores for my Deepavali shopping.  

Visited the iconic Express Avenue Mall in Chennai last week after a long time. Why after a long time? Because I moved to a new house late last year and don’t live closer to the Mall anymore. And there are enough stores across categories nearby current home. Looking at the sparse crowds all over, I had doubts if the mass media was actually correct about a possible slowdown. 

At least 6 CEOs / Heads of Businesses who run International / National Brands in India I spoke with over the past few days – and have known them personally, confirmed there’s no slowdown in Sales overall. Some said they have a single digit growth (over last year) and some said double-digit. Unfortunately, most of them told me not to quote them for this article. 

H&M on the other had revealed stunning sales for the past year although it’s not clear whether the Chennai store had a Y-O-Y increase in Sales or otherwise. At Rs. 1,236 Crores, it was 39% more than last year while it’s Profit grew a neat 29%. Zara, grew 17% to Rs. 1,438 Crores compared to last year. H&M & Zara operate 42 & 22 stores respectively in India. Meahile, Japanese Uniqlo opened a store at tony DLF Mall in South Delhi earlier this month and garnered a Sale of Rs. 2.20 Crores in the first two days. India's largest Department Store chain Shoppers Stop has been going through quite a metamorphosis under Rajeev Suri who took over a turbulent company two years back. Here's what he had to say to the Economic Times on where they are headed. Lifestyle, Dubai based Landmark Group's flagship chain has it various stores reporting mixed numbers, thanks to various geo-social changes in the consumption patterns. 

After seven fulfilling years in a healthy JV with the Tata Group, Starbucks aims to break-even this FY with an estimated store count of 185+ cafes all India. Dominos Pizza, India's largest F&B chain reported a 12% growth over last year while most other F&B companies, organized or semi-organised have seen a significant increase in Sales despite the hype over Food hailing Apps such as Swiggy and Zomato from whose channel, restaurants garner about 15-20% Sales. Even local eateries and restaurants have not seen a significant dip in outlet sales, which is usually compensated with online orders. A few local players have shut shop indeed but that's due to internal inefficiencies. 

The Multiplex industry, on the other hand is on a roll with PVR Cinemas, the market leader recording 25% more admits, 37% increase in Total Income and 149% increase in EBIDTA and 35% increase in Net Profits while there is a slew of films in Hindi, Tamil, Telugu and more Indian languages slated for release soon and which are expecting a big round of BO in the coming months. Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad claimed he was quoted out of context when he described the economy in healthy mode comparing the BO outcomes of a few films. And the American theory of Entertainment Industry doing well during a slowdown - well, probably yes for them but not in Indian when most Indians are scrambling for 3 meals and a healthy, wealthy living even when the Economy was apparently doing very well. 

There is NO Slowdown as is being projected everywhere in Mainstream Media. Yes, some industries have seen correction in the way they are run – from neighborhood Pharmacies to Auto-Dealers. Local Pharmacists cannot purchase medicines anymore without a valid GST Invoice which has affected their business overall since most small shops have never been used to paying VAT. Auto-Dealers were being dumped with stocks by Automobile Companies in the name of Primary Sales which has seen a collection. Commercial Vehicle Sales have come down, thanks to better quality of vehicles manufactured over the past decade, a faster TAT of trips thanks to GST and limited / nil local bureaucracy and of course the diesel price impact being absorbed by everyone in the value chain. 

No Indian has stopped spending or planning to stop spending. If people were buying a lot of grocery and vegetables, they have reduced shopping but this has been well compensated with Swiggy and Zomato Sales! And similarly in every other industry.

There is absolutely no scope of a RETAIL APOCALYPSE in India yet. Not for the next 30 years at least. Stop worrying and start spending like before. 

Happy Deepavali.

We are Chennai…

It was long pending but took a drive all the way up to the latest entrant in Chennai, the newly opened (partially though) VR Chennai, a Retail Centre spanning over 6 lakh square feet (in the first phase) adjoining the outer ring road, just outside the acceptable (hic!) city limits.  Planned and executed by Virtuous Retail, a Mall Management Company which has its Mall's presence at Surat, Bangalore and Punjab, the Centre is almost an oasis, what with a fantastic spread of Retail, F&B and Entertainment Opportunities in the anvil. 

The Mall is located north of Koyambedu, west of Anna Nagar and just after the Arumbakkam flyover. That this place existed for a huge strcture such as a Mall to come up came us a surprise to many in the city including a lot of Retail Professionals. 

So why does Chennai need yet another Mall while the existing ones are not providing double digit returns to Retailers? Why yet another Multiplex while the number of cinema goes has been steadily decreasing over the years, thanks to alternate entertainment options such as OTT Apps? Why should Brands invest heavily in yet another Retail  experiment (of sorts) while the existing Retail spaces are yet to be fully sweat?

Frankly, I have no answers on behalf of the whole of the Retail Fraternity. But here are my observations.

Chennai has historically been a high-street market, despite the so-called evolution and revolution of Malls and Shopping Centres in India since 2006. One of India’s first shopping centres came up at Chennai in the late 1990s – the iconic Spencers Plaza. It was a welcome break for shoppers who would otherwise throng the likes of T. Nagar, Purasawalkam fraught with heat and humidity while Spencers (as it was nicknamed) was the first a/c mall in India (Crossroads was just coming up in Mumbai but had entry restrictions while Ansal Plaza in Delhi was non A/c). Spencers was a super hit from day one with the second and third phases coming up in bursts but that’s when the High street Market continued to dominate and thanks to a property-ownership model at Spencers, leasing larger spaces was a challenge. And the mall slowly lost its sheen.

For a city of its size, there are just three malls of a reasonable size & scale -  Express Avenue, Phoenix Market City and Forum Vijaya Mall which together have about 20 lakh soft of actual Retail (minus the Cinemas). Interestingly, these three Malls form a nice Triangle while seen on a Map. The earliest entrant City Centre (Mylapore) failed due its own inefficiencies while the Ampa Mall (Arumbakkam) did quite well in its early years and slowly added fatigue & monotony; A suburban Grand Mall (at Velachery) sitting on a gold mine lost due to internal challenges of choosing the right sort of Clients. Then there is a Marina Mall on OMR which is yet to take off fully while the Spectrum Mall at Padi is a non-starter. MARG, the construction to research conglomerate lost out on a fantastic opportunity with it’s Mall structure half complete and lying idle for more than 5 years. 

So why a new Mall now?

I personally think that this Mall is a breather for Shoppers to avoid the congested bylanes of Anna Nagar and its periphery and head to this wonderful premises instead where they get an equal share of shopping, dining & entertainment.  For Retailers, this is a boon come true of sorts. Reason: The city had expanded in the deep south on OMR a decade back; it expanded towards Tambaram five years back. However, the western suburbs have been neglected for long. With so many thousands of people heading to work all the way up to Sriperumbudur daily, there is a huge chunk of middle class settlement happening in this part of the city. Also, there are very few options where a discerning Shopper gets satisfied with variety which VR Chennai is sure to offer.

I hope PVR Cinemas open soon, with a slew of films slated to release starting with Kamal Hassan’s Viswaroopam in August all the way up to November when Superstar Rajnikanth’s 2.0 will release after the recent Kaala. Now the question is will they be able to fill the cinemas, especially with newer challenges every day.

When Ancient meets Modern...

Baba Ramdev's Patanjali products have taken the consumer goods world by a storm over the past 24 months. While the herbal and ayurvedic brand has been around for a long time, Baba Ramdev gained massive popularity while joining protest meets held by Anna Hazare over corruption issues. He later dilly-dallied with Aam Aadmi Party and later found support from none other than the BJP which went on to form the Government at the Centre in 2014. Ever since, Baba Ramdev has been among the most searched figures in the internet, not to mention his Yoga classes and ayurvedic products. He has been, by the way imparting yoga techniques for decades and his programmes on yoga are a super hit on hindu spiritual channels in India such as Aastha Tv.

Patanjali, is a name which also belongs to the founder of Yoga and hence the correlation with consumer goods brand. At the moment, Patanjali has over 400 items across Grocery, Personal Care including skin care, dental care, herbal products, washing powder, soaps and detergents, pure Cow's Ghee, Honey and many more. These products are manufactured at a state of the art factory in Himachal Pradesh, located in the North of India with access to the Himalayas. The Brand has had its share of controversies with Baba Ramdev himself being the centre of attraction (or distraction) in various events. A section of Imams of the Muslim Community asked followers of Islam not to use these products since some of them included Cow's urine, which is considered in Hinduism as a disinfectant. It is another matter completely that there are hundreds of muslims who work at the Patanjali's massive factory spread over hundreds of acres in Himachal. With the fall-out of Maggi Noodles (a Nestle product), Patanjali wowed people with their Atta Noodles, considered a healthier option and launched them in Jan. 2016 ever since it's been a super hit. 

Patanjali has been giving tough competition to national and international brands such as Colgate, Nestle, P&G and many others. On the Sales & Distribution front, they follow a similar model such as the good old days of FMCG. The products are sent from the factory to a Super stockist in each Metro who in turn passes it on to Distributors who then pass on to Retail Stores. The entire Supply Chain seems to be working quite flawlessly at the moment. The demand-supply ratio is currently pegged at 1:4 as per market estimates, i.e., there is one unit available for every four people who are looking forward to buy it. This is massive. In Indian history of consumer products, Bajaj Motors has the notoriety for having made people to book a scooter and wait for several years for delivery. Patanjali is in the same vein. People of all ages and segments of the society have been embracing them.

Patanjali recently tied up with the largest retailer in the country, The Future Group and the products have been available on the shelves of Food Bazaar which is the Hypermarket chain of the company as well as in other smaller retail formats such as Nilgiris, KB's Fair Price, to name a few. This approach of taking ancient medicine to modern retail has been an interesting move by the brand which now rubs shoulders with other well established brands such as Surf, Lakme, ITC, Nestle, etc. It is imminent that no brand, irrespective of their origin or utility cannot neglect Organized Retail which was less than 5% of the market a decade back and is now at over 10% of the USD 600 billion market and growing at 20% CAGR. Patanjali is sure to make a dent in the market share of the biggies and news articles have appeared in international magazines that MNCs are already fretting over this issue.

The brand's popularity is largely due to the power of Ayurveda, the way it has been positioned in the minds of the consumers and the Brand Ambassador which is Baba Ramdev himself, who is seen and aspired as one of the fittest Indians. It wouldn't be surprising of the brand attracts significant Private Equity and grows in scale in times to come. Watch this space.

Breaking fast the traditional way!

Indians are fond of their meals, especially their breakfast. Except that they find increasing lesser time - to prepare as well as to consume. A typical bachelor skips his or her breakfast atleast 17 times or more a month according to a survey conducted by the students of a premier B-School in Chennai. And most other times, their obvious choice is Maggi or Bread & Jam prepared in a jiffy at home or hostel or mansion where they live. In the family households, its usually Idly/Dosa in the South Indian households on the weekdays and something a bit more exciting on the weekends when the family spends more time together. Typically, the breakfast options include Omlette with Eggs and/or Parathas/Puris in the North & East of India while it is the ubiquitous Vada Pav & Poha in the West and Central parts of India. The upwardly mobile and the health conscious have moved on to more healthier options such as Corn Flakes and Oats, which is more a fad at the moment than a habit. Doctors prescribe atleast 3-4 short meals a day with a 3-4 hour break in between and recommend that the Breakfast should be the most healthy and sumptuous while Dinner should be the least. 

With increasing awareness through TV and Social Media coupled with higher spending power, consumers are naturally looking at better options for their breakfast. India has the highest number of Diabetics in the world and those having this disorder are stricter with their diet regimen than the others. A large segment of Senior citizens who are part of SEC A+ A and B are also quite health conscious with their diet, especially their breakfast. And this is good news to companies who are operating in this segment. Kellogs India has been present in India for 15 years now and has gradually replaced traditional breakfast with their corn flakes over the years. There are many variants of the Corn Flakes now and are an attractive for people of all ages. Another rapidly growing breakfast category is the good old Oats, but in a new avatar. Oats has several benefits: cholesterol, sugar and weight control; easy to digest; filling and energising; fibrous; and easy to prepare, says a Nielsen India report, 'Oats are making waves at the breakfast table'. The annual sale of oats is growing at 38%, higher than the breakfast cereal category's 21.7% growth according to the report. Quaker Oats is the market leader in the organized Retail segment followed by Kellogg's, Saffola (from the house of Marico Industries) and Horlicks (from Glaxo Smithkline). 

Kellogg's has done a lot of innovative and interesting Marketing over the years and some of them have been within the confines of the retail stores as well as outside through traditional and social media. At Retail Stores such as Food Bazaar, part of the 12,000 Crore Future Group, Kellogg's conducts sampling exercises of its corn flakes and oats to customers - normally a small portion is given to sample the product and apparently, there is a 30% conversion of users to buy the product, according to Ms. Smita (29), a product associate at one of the retail locations who has been promoting Kellogg's products for over 2 years now. Saffola provides samples of oats along with 2/5 Litre Oil packs to its customers and such exercises are undertaken at premium retail outlets to reach out to the relevant target segments. "Kellogg leads the ready-to-eat cereal category and is a major player in oats. It continues to innovate and invest. Kellogg's Oat-bites is the only ready-to-eat in the market. We expect to see sustained growth in breakfast cereals, driven by consumers' increasing nutrition awareness and spending power," said Sangeeta Pendurkar, MD, Kellogg India in an interview to Hindustan Times.

On Pongal day this year (15 Jan. 2015), which is celebrated as Harvest Festival in the South of India, Kellogg's put out an interesting advertisement on the first page of The Hindu - proposing readers to switch over to Oats pongal as an alternative to the traditional Pongal which is made out of Rice & Ghee. The idea had a mixed response among readers. My 73 years old aunt was happy to note that there was such an option from Kellogg's - she has been consuming Oats for a couple of years now and sensed that this could be tastier and crunchier as well. Some people felt that nothing can be replaced by the steaming hot traditional rice pongal which is consumed with a tinge of liquid ghee on it. 

From a "call to action" point of view, I felt that they could have done a bit more than just mere advertising. In today's context, Modern Marketing is all about reaching out to consumers collaboratively. Kellogg's could have perhaps provided free samples along with the newspaper, quipped someone. I spoke to a general marketing practitioner and he said most companies have refrained from such activities because a few retailers take advantage by buying newspapers themselves and hoarding the free samples. Also, logistically, it is a nightmare to attach a sample pack with every newspaper, especially at 3 am in the morning when the newspapers reach the distributors. Instead, Kellogg's could have tied up with a prominent retailer which could have provided free samples. This way, the brand could have collaborated with a Retailer to drive footfalls which benefits the latter as well while attracting massive visibility. The paper-cutting could have been used to redeem the sachets at the retail store. And perhaps the customer would have also bought a thing or two in addition to the free sample. The same Ad through the Kellogg's Facebook Page could have generated much interest to the internet addicts as well - they could show the Ad to the retailer to get a sachet too!

The upcoming years would be interesting times for Retailers and Brands. Its not about selling (products) to consumers anymore. Its all about engaging them for the long term. And we have just begun.