Retail in India–Way ahead for 2012

 

Organized Retail in India has come a long way over the past decade and 2011 was expected to change the wind towards the positive side, due to allowing FDI in Retail. Thanks to political unrest and the opposition parties claiming hoarse, FDI in Multi-Brand Retail has been put on hold (hope not shelved) while FDI in Single Brand Retail has quietly been allowed, atleast on paper. While a few International Brands such as Benetton, Tommy, Diesel, Esprit, etc. have been operating in India for many years now through Joint Ventures with Indian partners, a beeline of Brands wanting to enter India is expected in 2012 – a hope that many in Retail have been holding on for sometime now! The coming months are expected to be exciting times for our Industry and here’s a view on how this landscape would evolve;

Malls

From a lakh square feet to a million square feet in 10 years, modern shopping centers aka Malls have walked a long journey all these years. Today, Malls are not places for consumers to just shop but a generous mix of shopatainment – which includes Shopping, Dining and Entertainment. While there are over 200 operational malls today in the country, another equal number is expected to come up in the next few years. A number of mall projects which commenced during the slowdown in 2008 are ready for occupancy now and many are expected to launch this year.

Supermarkets

The neighborhood supermarkets have evolved the most, among all formats of Retail over the years. Size was always a concern for players like Spencer’s and More – getting it right was a challenge, either the stores being too big with empty shelves or too small with regular stock-outs. Many players have exited the marketplace while a few like Food Bazaar and Nilgiris (through franchises) are increasing their presence assuming scale-up would help them gain overall net margins which range in high single digits. This would be the first format, in my opinion that would straighten up – only serious players would exist and they would do a great job while many others would exit – hopefully this year.

Hypermarkets

With foreigner CEOs and advisors engaging the managements of Indian Retailers, it was widely believed that Hypermarkets must be large, really large like the ones in western countries.Thanks to some early learning, many players like Hypercity and Total have corrected their ways of working. Small is the new Big, with Hypers ranging from 20,000 – 45,000 in prime retail areas in multi-level locations compared to the earlier proposition of being over 60,000 sft – one single floor in suburban areas! Newer players especially multi-nationals like Tesco and Target are expected in this format in the coming year while existing players are planning massive scale-ups.

Department Stores

These large format stores, the blue-eyed ones due to their colorful appearance was and is expected to be the only ones to see some EBIDTA in their early years. That’s a boon and bane in a sense in this format. To ensure they attract high-spender footfalls regularly, they should turn their stocks quite often; that means having the right mix of merchandise is extremely important which is a direct impact of having high quality staff who can choose the right merchandise every consecutive season. This is a vicious cycle and players like Shoppers Stop, Lifestyle, Westside etc. have got it right while a few of them are still struggling to learn.

Specialty Retailers

Stand-alone specialty stores of international and even domestic brands are seeing dwindling numbers. The total number of stores that were being added year-on-year have reduced considerably. If it was 20 new stores and most being unprofitable four years ago, the numbers have reversed, thankfully. Most brands don’t talk about crazy numbers anymore, only well-merchandised stores and outlet level profitably.

QSRs and Food Retailing

It seems cooking and eating at home is a more expensive proposition these days thanks to high food inflation and going by the sales of pizza chains and fine-dine restaurants. While Dunkin Donuts is almost ready with its first outlet, Starbucks is slated to open quite soon too. Café Coffee Day will ad over 200 new cafes this year while Dominos and Pizza Hut will have company in California Pizza Kitchen and a few others. This would indeed be the most exciting format to watch indeed!

Kiranas

The unorganized retailer down the road doesn’t pay taxes or offer health benefits to employees; no one ever checks the quality or quantity of goods sold; BUT he is able to offer lower prices everyday to consumers with other additional benefits such as short-term credit and quick home delivery. Modernisation is the byword for the them and they are indeed giving a touch competition to the organized players.

E-Commerce

But the real competition, if not threat to all formats of retail in 2012 is going to be through E-Commerce. Sadly, many brands and retailers are not paying attention to the increasing internet user base – over 100 million as of 2011 compared to just three million in 2001. This has allowed fly-by-night operators to open websites that sell everything from toothpaste to watches, apparel to expensive jewelry! Most of them have no clue how e-commerce works and many are even buying merchandise and selling – something which goes against the fundamental philosophy of transacting online!

FDI in Retail–the saga continues!

It was a much-awaited, welcome move by the Cabinet of the Indian Parliament to allow 100% FDI in Single Brand Retail and up to 51% FDI in multi-brand retail on 24th Nov. 2011. A surprise announcement, given that the winter session of the Parliament is under progress, which hasn’t been functioning fully due to various issues in the fore. The announcement comes after two decades of reforms that started in 1991 and over 10 years of strong growth by the Organized players of the Retail Industry in India. The Left parties along with the main opposition party in the Parliament, viz., the BJP have been publicly protesting against the decision. One senior member of the party has announced that she will burn the Wal-Mart store if it opens anywhere and she is ready to court arrest for the same! Such has been the tensions on this topic for many years now. Even the general public (read: Consumers) have been left confused due to various approaches proposed by those who are for- and against allowing FDI in retail. The issue has been politicized more than it is, by a section of those who claim that allowing foreign retailers will harm the livelihood of small kiranas (mom and pop retailers) while another view is that it would create millions of jobs and would bring down food inflation.

(Suggested Reading: Kirans and Retailers)

Background of the Indian Retail Industry

India’s largest retailer, The Future Group is close to $3 Billion in Revenues through its various formats such as Big Bazaar (hypermarket), Food Bazaar (supermarket), Pantaloon and Central Malls (lifestyle retailing), EZone (electronics) and Home Town (home improvement) and many other brands that it has created as well as through a license to operate. The $82 Billion TATA Group has been in the consumer lifestyle business through the TITAN watch brand for over 2 decades now while its premium jewellery chain Tanishq is the biggest among its peers. India’s largest company by market capitalisation, The Reliance Industries also operates various formats through its subsidiary Reliance Retail. Shoppers Stop (India’s largest Department store chain) and Hypercity (Hypermarkets) along with Home Stop and the Crossword book store chain is expected to reach a Billion Dollars in Revenue in the next 2-3 years with aggressive expansion and brisk business. UAE based Landmark Group which operates the Lifestyle stores along with SPAR supermarkets and MAX hypermarkets along with a few licensed brands will also be Billion dollar company soon (in its India operations). The world’s largest Retailer Wal-Mart has a JV with Bharti enterprises for operating supermarkets and hypermakets while has its own 100% subsidiary for operating the Cash-&-Carry format; Carrefour from France and Metro AG from Germany have similar models as well. Many other international retailers have been peeping into the Indian economy for want a small share of its vast business potential. And then there are a number of regional players across various geographies focussing in specific verticals who have aggressive expansion plans coupled with ambitious growth plans. Most of their funding has been through internal accruals while some of the large national players are public limited companies.

FDI – For and Against

While its fair to say that a few kiranas will face the heat due to the presence of large Retailers in their vicinity, I wonder why is the threat perception only against the international players. I would disagree that we need dollar funding for our growth – we have enough money in the economy (white, black, red, whatever) and some of the Indian business houses have more collective intellectual ability than compared with those abroad – the Indian conglomerate buying out a premier automobile company in the UK and turning it around in less than 2 years is a great example. Indian Hypermarkets, all of over 100 in number have been given a tuff fight in turn by the local kiranas, whose biggest advantage is convenience and home delivery coupled with short-term credit. The large retailers have been grappling with the single biggest problem of attrition (of staff) followed by shrinkage (or pilferage – wastages/stolen goods) which is amongst the highest in the world. India has over 12 million retail touch points and growing. While it is fashionable for some rich-kids to venture into retailing, it is indeed the livelihood of many million families that they are highly self-dependent on their own trade. in my view their threat is from anyone who ventures into the same business in their locality, big or small, domestic or international. If any, what we have to learn from International retailers is their strict adherence to processes and procedures which we tend to take easy at times. I remember, during my days at Foodworld a decade back, we used to have check-lists to be filled in my store managers and their deputies every hour to ensure the store is looking perfect at all times. Needless to say, the check-list was drafted by Dairy Farm International – DFI (incidentally, an anagram of FDI) and was shared with its then Indian JV partner, the RPG Spencers Group. Actually, there are many other things including best practices that we could learn a thing or two from International partners.

(Suggested Reading – How Odyssey gained International acclaim)

Inflation

It is a myth that allowing FDI would reduce food inflation. Certainly not in the short-term. What we lack, and very badly at that is the back-end infrastructure including logistics and supply chain. This is one area where international retailers with their vast experience in other markets such as the US, Europe, China and Brazil could bring in their expertise. Factually, it begins with the interaction with the farmer who grows the produce. What is popularly known as Farm-to-Fork. This area needs huge investments and conviction by the humble farmer that his efforts would indeed make a difference to the country, to the end user – the consumer. Let’s agree that this takes time. Maybe five years. Or more. But to convince people that allowing Wal-Mart and its ilk to open new stores would bring down inflation is a story that no one who is in the know will buy!

Execution – the key to FDI success

The cabinet has clearly indicated a few conditions which make FDI rules difficult for execution. Firstly, it says that the matter is a state subject which means each state can decide whether it wants to allow FDI or not. Secondly, it allows foreign retailers to enter cities only with a million or more population (and we have only 53 cities such as this as of Nov. 2011). In a way it is good, that only evolved, mature markets are open for FDI investment, but in hindsight it is the Tier II & below cities that need more investments. so, these two points make it extremely cumbersome to operate. If an Indian Retailers wants to share its “board” with a foreign retailer, it is only for one of the two reasons – either it wants to reduce its debt by offloading stake (which the banks are not willing to, anymore) or to learn international best practices.

(Also Read: Low-Cost – its all about the perception)

The draft is yet to be tabled in the parliament as this column is being written and some high-voltage drama is expected over the next few days. Whichever way, these are exciting times ahead. For Retailers, its a new ray of hope to perform better for the sake of its shareholders & for itself; For Retail professionals like me, it opens up our employability & professional success; and for Consumers, it means more options & competitive environment between existing retailers and better prices for them.

All summed up in one word – Hope.

Dasera – Diwali Dhamaka for Retailers

A former colleague of mine, a Swiss gentleman once quipped that everyday in India is a festival day! Well, he was right in a way, maybe not quite literally though. With so many religions and diverse cultures, indeed every day may have some form of festival in India…

This October month is one of those rare ones – that benefit Grocery Retailers, typically supermarket and hypermarket chains like Food Bazaar, Reliance, Spencer's, More, SPAR, EasyDay and others. Navaratri / Dasera, which commenced on 27th Sep continues into the first week of October and Diwali will be celebrated during the last week of the month. Typically, the monthly Grocery shopping happens once a month, usually in the last week of the month gone by or during the first week of the current month. But in this case, families would have to shop twice, and probably more quantities than usual – roughly 1.5 to 2 times the average quantities. Navaratri is celebrated in different forms and signify different things for people across the country. in Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Karnataka, families set-up dolls at home – popularly known as the “Kolu”. During this period, Goddesses Durga, Lakshmi and Saraswati are prayed and celebrated three days each. Every evening, women folk and children visit houses of neighbours and are fed with “sundal” – the nine grains, one each every day. Now – this category is shopped for extensively before the festival commences which may not be consumed so much otherwise through the year. Also, the visitors are gifted small household articles usually made of plastic and this category also sees an increase in sales during the period. Fruits, which are distributed benevolently, see a surge in price and hence consumers prefer shopping at Supermarkets and Hypermarkets for a better bargain.

In Gujarat and West Bengal, it is more a societal occasion. While Hindus celebrate it the most, people across all walks of life join into the celebrations. While “Dandiya” – an art form of dance is the most happening one in Gujarat, the Bengalis install huge “Pandals” which showcase Goddess Durga in different forms. People visit Pandals day and night and wear new clothes (in Bengal) while late evening Dandiya sessions are regular during the week. And obviously, new clothes are something that every one looks forward to! Even Western / Foreign brands (like Benetton seen below) join in the festivities by promoting themselves during this period.

Just around the corner is Diwali – the festival of lights and the biggest grosser for Retailers across categories. This festival is also celebrated in its unique way across the country. While families shop for Electronics and Gadgets, Home Furniture, Clothing and Accessories, sweets for distribution and consumption is a big hit too. Retailers and Brands have already started advertising for the ensuing Diwali as well and is expected to step up their promotions starting this weekend.

If there is one category that sees a low, it’s liquor and alcoholic beverages. People generally refrain from visiting bars / consuming such beverages due to the ensuing festivities but things are indeed changing. And hopefully, this category will support Retailers in November which is expected to be one of the lowest months  for business since there are not major festivals (duh) until the Christmas season commences. Anyway, wishing each one of you Seasons’ Greetings and of course, Happy Shopping!

Is Online Sales all about Discounts?

Early this week, I received a mailer on my inbox – that screamed a 51% Discount – just that I was confused if it was at their physical stores or on their website. While Shoppers Stop’s online avatar has been around for over three years now, all of a sudden there seems to be a high decibel discounts’ driven campaign. Not just this retailer which is India’s largest with over 40 stores across 20 cities and attracts over 5 million customers every year, but a quick look at most of the online e-tailers confirms that they have all been offering rather steep discounts of 30-70% on their  offering. Rather, the assumption is that higher discounts would attract more shoppers. In my opinion, this is a rather disastrous move. And here are my observations;

Pricing and Discounts

Most of the online retailers (or mere web companies) do not have the background of traditional retailers. If predatory pricing was the best way to attract shoppers, then the whole world would only have Discount Retailers selling everything on discounts all through the year! But this is not the case. Discounts  are a way of getting rid of older stocks and also a way to attract new shoppers into the stores (or websites). While this “P” can be played with once in a while, it is dangerous to keep it as a hook all the time. There should be a stronger reason for shoppers to shop online, than just discounts and price-offs. 

Image Courtesy: shopperstop.com

Merchandise offering

It’s myth that online retailers and their ilk propose a wider range of products (Read: Depth of categories and the number of SKUs) than physical stores – this is more a proposition than reality. By showcasing a wider range, the e-tailers are committing to the fact that they have a wider range, which more often than not is not the reality. I was looking for a famous auto-bio of a Retail business leader a few days ago for gifting my classmate. Since there wasn’t a “Crossword” or a “Odyssey” book store close to where I stay, I preferred to shop online. Tough luck. One e-tailer didn’t have the stock; another had it but would take 7-10 days to deliver; and yet another showed a “http syntax error!”. I gave up on my search and proceeded to the closest store to buy it. A famous fashion e-tailer who sends exciting emailers everyday had a bigger surprise in store. Most of the products they had advertised was out of stock! Insult to injury is that no one (internally) had even bothered to remove the images or those products temporarily (if stocks were awaited) or permanently if the stock wouldn’t return. On the section which boasts “Luxury Lounge”, there is a sleek note which says that the sales would return and the user would be informed. Bizarre!

Image Courtesy: fashionandyou.com

In my humble opinion, Online shopping is, and should be an experience. Let’s not forget that India has over 12 million retailers – across various formats and sizes, though mostly unorganized while the Organized Retailers contribute for less than 10% of the estimated business size of INR 200,000 Crores. Online Retail is a single-digit contribution to this, but is expected to reach a significant number over the next five years. If a potential consumer has to shop online, here are a few points why they would;

Convenience

First and foremost, its the convenience of shopping online from a preferred device – it could be a desktop, laptop, tablet, mobile phone, etc. The entire process should be quick and efficient. Although most e-tailers insist on the customer to create a user log-in, the transaction time and check-out should be faster, ideally lesser than the 2-3 minutes it takes at a physical store. Also, the web-pages should have limited graphics and high-end visuals – while the idea could be to present the site in a glamorous way, let’s not forget the dismal internet speed (could be worse if its on GPRS or even 3G) unless the user is using high bandwidth Broadband services. Therefore, simple JPEGs could be a better idea.

Ambience

The good-old grid layout is so boring! Almost all e-tailers are using this format because the most recent entrant used it. If physical stores could have various shapes and sizes, colours and backgrounds, then why not online? In fact online e-tailers could do even better since they have the opportunity to change as often as possible, usually at minimal or no cost. While the usual moments of truth that a customer experiences at the physical store cannot be provided online, what can be offered is the simplicity in approach. There are different ways of doing it, and it’s up to the company to decide depending on their user base.

Depth Vs. Width

A raging debate, even for offline Retailers, its quite tricky which is better. To have, say for example – 50 brands of shirts with fewer stock options or just 5 brands but will all options (including colour and size). Again, there is no correct way – just that the retailer need to position itself accordingly to attract relevant audience and footfalls (should we say fingerfalls!). Similar to various kinds of “offline shoppers”, online shoppers too would choose their preferred retailers accordingly.

Image Courtesy: shopping.indiatimes.com

Customer Service

This point is, in my opinion more important online than anything else. Reason: In physical retail, the customer sees a person, interacts with him or her and there is a “touch and feel” during the entire transaction. In this case, there is none. Even after the payments are done, there is no assurance that the product would be delivered safely and on time as was promised. Most importantly, in case of a query, there should be someone whom the Customer should be able to reach out to. This is of utmost importance. If the “web” doesn’t have day or night, if the “internet” world never sleeps, then how can a Call Centre (of the online Retailer) work selectively?

On-time Delivery

This is one major area that most e-tailers are focussing on, apparently. And quite obviously. Unlike a physical retail store where the customer not just gets to see the product while buying, but also gets to carry it themselves, in this case, there is a wait time – from 1 working day leading up to a week or maybe more. And when the product arrives at the doorstep, it’s all about packaging and safe-delivery. It would be better to have a reasonable shipping time, rather than delay the delivery time. But having said that, it is important to stick to timelines and be reasonable about it. To take a week to ship a Book is not done! However, it’s better to “Under Promise, Over Deliver”.

Payment & Security

I was reading recently that most shoppers are more comfortable to shop when there is a trusted gateway. Indeed. Frauds can happen more often offline than on the Net – we have recently come across cases where ATM Debit cards have been masked in Mumbai, waiters photo copying Credit cards and CVV number to use them later on, etc. So, the risk element exists and this is a reality. Online Retailers should have comforting information about online security policies and may even want to have an Insurance Company to be roped in – after all, what a better product to sell online!

At the end of it, “Price” is not just the one factor that the shopper is looking forward to, while shopping online. It’s a wholesome experience. From a transactional activity to an experiential activity, it’s going to take some effort and time for e-tailers to entice shoppers to be active online. But I am sure, this would happen sooner than later. Watch this space.

Hypermarkets–The latest poster boy of Modern Retail

The first thought that came to my mind was – “Will this store be THE game changer for this Mall?” Not that it had weak anchors otherwise, but somehow this store, I believe would attract most number of footfalls. Time will prove, and I hope my assessment would be correct in this case too. I am referring to HyperCITY from the K Raheja Group which opened a few weeks back at Royal Meenakshi Mall - Hulimavu, a lesser known suburb in South-East Bangalore which houses one of the largest new-age residential settlements of those who are employed in IT, ITES and the BPO Industries, mainly due to the cost effective availability of housing requirements as well as reasonable accessibility in terms of time and distance to their respective workplaces. A maiden attempt by a group of enterprising entrepreneurs, I would say this is another brilliant model for Neighbourhood malls – self sustained with most aspects of modern retail within its precincts. Other anchors include Cineapolis, the Mexico based multiplex chain with its first cinema in South India, CROMA – the electronics store from Tata Retail (TRENT) and many others.

The store is located on the upper ground floor facing the main entrance and the lower ground floor of the mall with direct access to the basement parking areas – a smart move by the Retailer to encourage shoppers to enter the store directly after they park their vehicles.  However, after finishing their shopping from the Upper ground floor, one would have to pass through the lower floor to access their cars – a bit of walking around the store though, which could be inconvenient during peak shopping hours. The store is well laid out – the lower ground floor offers Grocery and other Home needs while the upper ground floor with all other categories including Electronics, Toys, Apparel, Furniture, even Bicycles and many more. My guess is that the lower ground would remain more crowded – for two reasons; one that it has brilliant view from outside and would naturally attract mall visitors, and two that it houses the core categories which shoppers would come looking to save for – grocery, fruits and vegetables and household items. What I liked the most was the “fresh section” – Maybe it was the first day and hence everything looked very nicely displayed but still, the way the categories were planned was commendable. Also, they are located deep within the store, another smart idea to pull customers inside and thereby making them walk through the store. Meat & Poultry located close by could prove to be a disadvantage if the exhausts and HVAC are not maintained well – an issue that many retailers are trying to grope with.

The store interiors are typical of a Hyper – no false roofing, basic tiles on the floor, tube-lights running through the length and breadth of the store and focus lights on merchandise that’s on offer. While it does reduce the Capex to a large extent, it also showcases the store as being simple and straightforward – a stark contrast to the luxury stores at high-end malls that sometimes stink of grandeur and austerity! After all, hypermarkets should also look what they profess – savings, savings and savings. And HyperCITY is indeed very good at it. On the store launch, Mark Ashman, CEO, HyperCity Retail (India) Ltd, told the media, “HyperCity is committed to fulfilling the aspirations of the local people by providing them a world-class shopping experience. Our customers will enjoy the convenience of international shopping from over 44,000 products at great value under one roof.” And all this over a mere 60,000 sft.!

With their continued focus on convenience, experience, quality and savings, there is something that this Retailer has been doing right. Apart from stacking the right merchandise, I guess its the speed at which they have been growing. Often accused (not in a real sense though) of being slow in terms of store expansion and growth, HyperCITY has got its act right. With only 10 stores across the country, the group has managed to understand the business well – they have opened at interesting catchments across cities to ensure that they are not just in the race to grab market share but also to make money at the store level. With an investment of upto INR 2 Crores per store, the Retailer has been cautious about its overall Operational profitability which seems to be getting better by the day. Specific to this Mall, none other than the Hyper is going to be the the main anchor that would attract thousands of shoppers every month! Those who come to shop would indeed pass through the other Retail stores, Food Courts & Restaurants and m\Movies would complete the entertainment bit as well. This store is not an exception, but Hypers would become the Poster boy of Modern Retail and the Darling of Mall Developers soon.

Best Price - Best in Class!

 

I have seen a few abroad, I have read a quite a lot but today was the first time I was part of the inauguration of a Hypermarket Store. The sixth Cash & Carry store of Bharti-Walmart, rightfully named “Best Price” opened its doors for customers today at Ludhiana. Spread over 50,000 sft on a single level, the store has almost all categories including Grocery, Fruits and Vegetables, Fresh Meat, Personal Care, Home Needs and Home Care, Electronics and General Merchandise. Café Coffee Day is the only F&B point, right after the cash counters – smart planning by the store designers. This is the third CCD after opening within Best Price stores at Amritsar and Jalandhar. Addressing a small gathering of the Press & Media, Employees, Vendors and Guests, Mr. Rajan Mittal, Vice Chairman of the Bharti Group emphasized the relevance of Organized Retail and such formats in the current Indian scenario. He expressed his pride that the group was able to open at their hometown of Ludhiana where he had lived for over 20 years and thanked well-wishers for their stupendous success. Drawing an example of the telecom industry which was in its nascent stage fifteen years back, and which was fully controlled by the Government through its own bodies, he said that the sector was opened up to private players and today, India has a remarkable tele-density. Similarly, the group is pioneering Organized Retail through two formats, the B2B model (Best Price) and B2C model (Easy Day markets) in association with Wal-Mart, the world’s largest Retailer. He also drew comparisons of how China had opened up Organized Retail, how employment is generated and millions are benefitted. Mr. Raj Jain, President of Bharti-Walmart said that the company intends to expand outside of Punjab in states such as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan etc. South India would also be a focus with one out of the three Distribution Centers expected to come up at Bangalore. He explained how small retailers can benefit immensely by becoming members of the Best Price format – registration is simple, just a few documents to be provided and patrons can benefit from the prices offered by the store. To ensure only genuine buyers are using the facility, he said that the membership is renewed annually. Credit Cards are not accepted but Kotak Bank, which is the strategic partner to the Retailer, provides 14 day’s credit to members who are part of its own credit program.

While the discussions on FDI is raging all along, Mr. Mittal expressed that the intellectual debate was over and it is now time to act – to open up the Retail sector and allow 100% investment across various formats. The white paper on allowing FDI was published by the Government and the industry has replied their thoughts and concerns. Currently 100% FDI is allowed only in the B2B model while 50% FDI is allowed in the B2C formats, although foreign companies can invest upto 100% in single-brand Retail. Such investments would allow multinationals to invest in back-end supply chain, only which would fuel front-end business. Bang on.

Well. It is easier said than done but eternal optimists like me who intend to spend our lifetimes in this ever exciting industry believe that this should happen sooner than later, for the larger benefit of the society. If one such store can offer direct and indirect employment to over 200 people, it is not so difficult to gauge the overall employability that the sector can generate. Currently, over a million people are part of Organized Retail in India but this number should increase significantly – by 5 times or more in the next 10 years, if only the Industry is allowed to grow. Specific to the Cash & Carry format, small traders and retailers can benefit immensely, thanks to the EDLP or “Every Day Low Pricing” philosophy (although founded by ASDA) but  implemented aggressively by the Grand Old Man of Modern Retail, Sam Walton – the founder of Wal-Mart. He believed that consumers must benefit everyday with lower prices – the reason was two-fold – one, that customers would not hoard commodities for the future; two, that they would visit the store more often, a smart way of driving repeat footfalls. For a nation that has over 10 million small and medium retail stores, India doesn’t have even 50 Cash & Carry Stores! Metro AG, the German Retailer opened for business in 2001 and operates half-a-dozen stores, while the French Retailer Carrefour commenced in 2010 and is still studying its first store located in the suburbs of Delhi.  The Future Group and Reliance Retail are also carefully monitoring and are expected to launch their own Cash and Carry formats soon. Expect a lot of action in this space. And if you are a professional running your own business, be sure to reap rich benefits from such stores. Long Live, Organized Retail. 

A curious case of Autorickshaws and Kiranas!

The prepaid queue at the Bangalore City Railway Station was long, but we decided to wait patiently instead of choosing one of the touts who were continuously stalking us. After all, many auto drivers have been waiting patiently notwithstanding the early morning chillness for their turn to pick up a customer at the prepaid counter for a long time. In our city like many others, the night fare (10 pm – 5 am) is usually 1.5 times of the normal and is quite well accepted. So the prepaid fare to my house was Rs. 200/- as against the more luxurious Meru Cab which we took during the onward journey that cost us Rs. 350. While sitting in the auto this morning, I was thinking about need and necessity. At 5am, all we needed was a transportation to reach home safely. During the peak hours last Saturday we had chosen a taxi – we had time at our disposal and didn’t mind paying a bit more for the comfort of a/c during the day time. Is there a lesson or two, I was guessing if one had to compare autos and kiranas. Just after sometime, the headline of a leading English newspaper claimed that 15,000 additional autorickshaw permits were being issued shortly and the total number of such vehicles plying in the city would touch close to 95,000 vehicles!

That’s a lot for a city of size of Bangalore, many would argue. I disagree a bit. It is based on the age-old principle of demand and supply, according to State Transport Commissioner Bhaskar Rao. The power of permit makes the auto driver a ruler. We need more autorickshaws to reduce the nuisance. Liberalising the over-regulated permits will no doubt increase their numbers on road but the good part is that it will also increase options for the commuting public. Auto drivers will have to oblige then, he said. Quite true. In the long run, with personal mobility becoming a compulsive habit and the acceptance of public transport as a sustainable and viable mode of commute, Autos will become more of fillers – running short distances and acting as the last mile connectivity – be it from bus stands or Metro stations while taxis could turn out to be the preferred mode while travelling from home to airport or railway station.

Cut to the real Retail Story. In spite of the increasing number of Organized Retailers, especially in the food, grocery and household segments, it’s quite common to see so many Kirana Stores coming up in smaller neighbourhoods. As is the case of “Bottom of Pyramid”, the consuming class is right there and is expanding its base as well as its propensity to consume. They are moving upwards from the Govt. run – Public Distribution Stores (PDS) to the neighbourhood kiranas whose regular clientele is moving towards neighbourhood Supermarkets, and in turn whose regulars are moving towards the large-format Hyperstores. However, all these consumers, when they need a pack of salt or sugar, vermicelli or Maggi, reach out to the neighbourhood kirana!

The case here is logical and comparable. When the product becomes a bare necessity, consumers would reach out to what’s close by and cheapest as a measure of time – the ubiquitous kirana while the monthly pantry filling or a weekend party shopping would be at a large format organized Super market or Hypermarket. The consumer is fully aware that one doesn’t derive the benefits of organized retail such as bulk discounts, buy one get one, and price-offs at the local kirana, but they know that time is of essence and hence reach out.

I have always remained a proponent of Retail FDI in the hope and faith that it would only do good to Kiranas as well as end users and consumers in the long term. Such anecdotes make our hypotheses stronger.

Long Live Kiranas; Long Live Organized Retailers!

It was a Sunday afternoon and a lazy one at it. And that’s just when someone at home asks for a pack of NAN 3 – a health substitute from Nestle SA that’s given to children. Given that it is a product not available so easily and usually procured from Pharmacies or Drug Stores, no one at home is willing to hit the road and that’s when the friendly Kirana comes to remembrance. One phone call and it would be delivered in a few minutes, suggested one of the members at the household. The next minute, someone was making the call and the friendly voice at the other end was actually prodding for further purchases if the family needed something else. A few other items were included and it was promised the stuff would be delivered shortly. And indeed, it was. In the next 15 minutes, there was a young boy at the door with a bag full of items for well over Rs. 500/-. This can happen, most probably only in India. We as a nation are not yet fully used to shopping in a cycle – although we see major crowds at the large hyper and super markets, consumers miss out buying many things – either they are out of stock or they are out of their shopping list. This is very unlike in the West where there has been an evolution of shopping habits, usually during the beginning of the month, or even on weekends, well in advance for the week ahead. But here, most times we prefer the “just-in-time” way.

 

While the debate and discussion regarding opening up FDI in Retail has prevailed for long, there is little doubt that Organized Retailers could offer such services. “Free Home Delivery” is usually advertised at many Supermarkets like Foodworld, Spencers, Nilgiris and even a few Hypermarkets like Total, Food Bazaar but they all come with riders – that the distance should be within a 3-5 km radius, the total bill value should be above a certain level and that the delivery could take between 2- 6 hours depending on the day of the week and place of delivery. Naturally, since the cost of operating is far higher for Organized Retailers than the neighbourhood kiranas. The big boys need to maintain books of accounts, a mini truck or a van to deliver and a driver to drive (not to forget the maintenance of these vehicles) and many other internal processes. All these are negated with the local kirana. Depending on the level or urgency, the kirana is willing to deliver at the earliest and usually within the locality and most of them operate in one.

Cash & Carry Retailers (are they actually retailers?!?) such as Metro AG have been operating in India since 2001 and most recently Wal-Mart in a JV with the Bharti Group has been operating such stores in Punjab under the trade name “Best Price”. These stores usually sell their wares to the smaller kiranas, hotels, restaurants, etc. who in turn retail to end users and consumers. Since the large Organized Retailers order their goods directly from the brands and suppliers, they are able to pass on higher margins to the kiranas who in fact benefit from this exercise. This has been a strong point supporting FDI in Retail all along since many in the industry believe that it would do well in the long run for the Retailers, the Kiranas and the Consumers.

 

It is quite natural to see more deliveries over the weekends, festivals days and specials events such as Cricket Series and Public holidays as there are more people to consume at home. Not just the kirana stuff, even door-delivery of food and other beverages seems to be on the rise. Last Sunday along with the morning newspapers, there were pamphlets from atleast three restaurants in the area – all small time local operators. An A4 page size pamphlet cluttered with a whopping menu of more than 100 items printed in two colours on the back and front size. But who cares! As long as the food is tasty and delivered on time, nobody bothers. What’s important is not just quick service but the quality of products. Kiranas and small-time eateries take greater care while packing, transporting and delivering as these simple steps are their real “Brand Ambassadors”. If all three were good the first time, chances are they would be called again.

So, no matter how many large Retail formats open up in this country, one reason why Kiranas will remain in business is “convenience” – a fact that most of us live by.

Long Live Kiranas! Long Live Home Deliveries!

FDI in Retail – A never ending discussion!

5^th and 6^th July 2010 would remain etched in the history of Indian Retail for some time to come. While the country witnessed an unprecedented (sic) response to a nation-wide Bandh (shutdown) called by the opposition parties against the recent Fuel price hike (after the Government deregulated Fuel prices) and to show their solidarity against rising levels of inflation on Monday, leading to estimated losses over USD 3 Billion, Tuesday was a green letter day for Organized Retailers. The Government of India (GoI) announced a discussion paper to debate on allowing FDI in multi-brand retail leading to mixed reactions across the country and outside. Everyone who was anyone in the Retail realm in the country had comments to make. Rightly so, as this public debate was much needed; while the fundamentalists have always argued against the entry of foreign multinationals in Retail, those in the business have usually welcomed the idea, although with caution. One of the biggest criticisms against such a move by the country is that the small retailers (Read: Kirana Stores aka Mom-Pop stores) would lose business to the modern, organized retailers.

Currently, Indian Government allows upto 100% FDI in Cash and Carry (B2B), 51% FDI in multi-brand retail and 100% FDI in single-brand retail – that means, the brand can sell various categories of products with the same brand identity – apparel, accessories, watches, footwear, etc. Insofar multi brand retail, the restriction is to ensure that Joint Ventures are formed only with Indian partners, thereby benefitting Indian business houses. Although this was allowed by GoI way back in 1996, apart from the then dominant RPG Group which formed a JV with Hong-Kong based Dairy Farm International to form Foodworld Supermarkets Ltd., not many business houses took advantage of the model. Organized Retail was after all not so lucrative those days and my own kith and kin didn’t take me so seriously when we would discuss the upcoming opportunities. Today, the top business houses in the country including Tatas (Westside Department Stores, Star Bazaar hypermarkets), Birlas (Aditya Birla – Fashion Retail, More Hypermarkets), Ambanis (Reliance Hyper and other formats) and Mittals (Bharti-Wal-Mart) are focussing on this business. Some of the concerns on allowing FDI in multi-brand retail are captured here;

Loss of livelihood for Kirana stores

The biggest and single largest qualm against allowing FDI in Retail have been that Organized Retail would lead to losses of small kirana stores. There are over 12 million retail touch points in India of which more than 90% of them are Unorganized. The estimated size of the Indian Retail Market (as per various sources online) is more than INR 200,000 Crores. So, 90% of those engaged in Retail business, to begin with do not pay necessary taxes to the Government. These small retailers operate on a net margin of 4-7% after all their expenses and hence the Governments (Read Political parties) have remained soft on them. These small traditional Retailers have been serving Indian consumers and their families for over four decades and remain favourites – from buying milk to bread or vegetables. Many of them provide credit facilities and some even deliver at doorstep at odd times of the day (and night), without any additional cost. These Kirana stores have been all time favourites for FMCG Companies to introduce and promote new products, new variants and various consumer promotions. All this changed since 2000 AD when organized retailers started to spring up all across the country. Those days, Organized Retail was less than 5% and was considered pricier and novel, even by urban consumers. However, Organized Retail has come a long way since then. In large cities and metros today, Organized Retailers aren’t competing with Kirana stores anymore, but with those of their own ilk – other organized retailers. It is quite common to see large advertisements in leading newspapers all through the week and weekends advertising various offers and promos to entice consumers to visit their outlets. Having said that, not many small retailers and Kiranas have lost business; In fact, they have got better and more organized than before. Those who are out of business are not because of large retailers, but because of competition in the same league – similar ones are offering better pricing and service, two main attributes why consumers were shopping at Kiranas. When consumers in SEC B and above moved towards Organized Retail, those below moved up from shopping at Govt. Run PDS Stores to small Kiranas. Maslow’s theory of Evolution?

Hence, the logic that small Kiranas would run out of business is not just a myth, but also immature. Remember, we have a billion people to feed, dress and house – there is enough and more opportunity at the bottom of the pyramid.  

Employment opportunities and benefits

Most of the Kiranas are entrepreneurs of their own right – they would have started their business using a small capital, borrowed from friends and family and the shop would actually be a part of a house, either their own or somebody else’s. The husband-wife couple take turns to run the show and some of their relatives’ children or their own add hands for support when required, especially on weekends or for home-delivery. It is amazing to see sometimes, children in their teens explaining fabulously about product attributes and pushing sales (top-ups), even better than Management Trainees of FMCG Companies. One of the biggest qualms of allowing FDI is that it would lead to loss of employment – a strange fact, since it is actually the couple who run the business and usually do not employ outsiders. Those employed are their own kith and kin and hence, the staff cost is less than 2% of their turnover, if not lower. Organized Retailers need to comply with Govt. norms with regard to payment of wages and the staff salary includes health benefits (ESI) as well as long term benefits (gratuity / pension). Therefore, Organized Retail would not only provide higher wages to those working in the front-end but would also ensure continuity of service and job-security. The Future Group along with its subsidiaries and joint-ventures, which manages various formats such as Big Bazaar, Central Malls, Pantaloon Fashion and various other formats employs over 12,000 employees!

Capital infusion and erosion of profits

Capital infusion is considered among the biggest benefits of allowing FDI in Retail. Although large business houses like Tatas, Birlas and Ambanis have enough (monetary) capital to provide, what they need is Intellectual Capital. While it is always good to say that India is a country of entrepreneurs and we know to run the business best, what we also need to know from International partners is ways and methods to run the business more efficiently – simply because they have been running their own businesses successfully across countries and continents all over the world. Having said that, the next concern is that the multi-nationals would send their profits back home to their headquarters situated outside the country. This too, is a far-fetched dream. The net margin EBITDA that Organized Retailers manage is between 4-12%, depending on the nature of their business. Typically after paying taxes of all sorts, what they end up with a single digit or a decimal profit. Note, Retail is a business that gets profitable over a period of time and with scale. So, to increase their presence and run the business across the country, a lot of capital (including profits) gets circulated. So, if there is any one multi-national that would make money and send back home, it would be a long, long time!

Decision-Makers – Final word

While all the razzmatazz of the FDI paper was being discussed in India, Carrefour SA, the French Retailer announced that it is planning to sell of its business and exit South East Asian countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, etc. Many would know that US Retailer Wal-Mart had to exit certain European countries after its failed attempt many years ago. Japanese and Chinese Retailers have never stepped out of their terrain since they believe they know their market best. As many would agree in the business, Retail is a very local business. The players need to understand the sentiments of the local and accordingly manage the business. I was at a popular Hypermarket at Bangalore yesterday and while I was talking to their Head of Operations, I learnt that the layout was designed by two foreigners who were experts from Europe. Needless to say, the layout was not only unfriendly but also needs localization, NOW. Consumers have shrugged off the “phoren” theory of Retailing and have embraced local players because of their offering. So, ultimately it is not just Government policies but the consuming public who decide the success or otherwise of any business, and particularly Retail. Time will tell who remains in the business.